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基于决策树模型的胆道闭锁超声诊断

Ultrasonographic Diagnosis of Biliary Atresia Based on a Decision-Making Tree Model.

作者信息

Lee So Mi, Cheon Jung-Eun, Choi Young Hun, Kim Woo Sun, Cho Hyun-Hae, Kim In-One, You Sun Kyoung

机构信息

Department of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul 03080, Korea.

出版信息

Korean J Radiol. 2015 Nov-Dec;16(6):1364-72. doi: 10.3348/kjr.2015.16.6.1364. Epub 2015 Oct 26.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To assess the diagnostic value of various ultrasound (US) findings and to make a decision-tree model for US diagnosis of biliary atresia (BA).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From March 2008 to January 2014, the following US findings were retrospectively evaluated in 100 infants with cholestatic jaundice (BA, n = 46; non-BA, n = 54): length and morphology of the gallbladder, triangular cord thickness, hepatic artery and portal vein diameters, and visualization of the common bile duct. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the features that would be useful in predicting BA. Conditional inference tree analysis was used to generate a decision-making tree for classifying patients into the BA or non-BA groups.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness were significant predictors of BA (p = 0.003 and 0.001; adjusted odds ratio: 345.6 and 65.6, respectively). In the decision-making tree using conditional inference tree analysis, gallbladder morphology and triangular cord thickness (optimal cutoff value of triangular cord thickness, 3.4 mm) were also selected as significant discriminators for differential diagnosis of BA, and gallbladder morphology was the first discriminator. The diagnostic performance of the decision-making tree was excellent, with sensitivity of 100% (46/46), specificity of 94.4% (51/54), and overall accuracy of 97% (97/100).

CONCLUSION

Abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness (> 3.4 mm) were the most useful predictors of BA on US. We suggest that the gallbladder morphology should be evaluated first and that triangular cord thickness should be evaluated subsequently in cases with normal gallbladder morphology.

摘要

目的

评估各种超声(US)检查结果的诊断价值,并建立用于超声诊断胆道闭锁(BA)的决策树模型。

材料与方法

回顾性分析2008年3月至2014年1月期间100例胆汁淤积性黄疸婴儿(BA组46例;非BA组54例)的以下超声检查结果:胆囊的长度和形态、三角索厚度、肝动脉和门静脉直径以及胆总管的可视化情况。进行逻辑回归分析以确定有助于预测BA的特征。使用条件推断树分析生成决策树,将患者分为BA组或非BA组。

结果

多变量逻辑回归分析显示,胆囊形态异常和三角索厚度增加是BA的重要预测指标(p = 0.003和0.001;调整后的优势比分别为345.6和65.6)。在使用条件推断树分析的决策树中,胆囊形态和三角索厚度(三角索厚度的最佳截断值为3.4 mm)也被选为BA鉴别诊断的重要指标,且胆囊形态是首要鉴别指标。该决策树的诊断性能极佳,敏感性为100%(46/46),特异性为94.4%(51/54),总体准确率为97%(97/100)。

结论

胆囊形态异常和三角索厚度增加(> 3.4 mm)是超声诊断BA最有用的预测指标。我们建议应首先评估胆囊形态,对于胆囊形态正常的病例,随后评估三角索厚度。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fafb/4644760/c480a6b6ec6d/kjr-16-1364-g001.jpg

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