Agliari Elena, Barra Adriano, Galluzzi Andrea, Javarone Marco Alberto, Pizzoferrato Andrea, Tantari Daniele
Dipartimento di Matematica, Sapienza Università di Roma, Roma, Italy.
Dipartimento di Fisica, Sapienza Università di Roma, Roma, Italy.
PLoS One. 2015 Dec 29;10(12):e0144643. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144643. eCollection 2015.
In this work we apply techniques and modus operandi typical of Statistical Mechanics to a large dataset about key social quantifiers and compare the resulting behaviors of five European nations, namely France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Switzerland. The social quantifiers considered are i. the evolution of the number of autochthonous marriages (i.e., between two natives) within a given territorial district and ii. the evolution of the number of mixed marriages (i.e., between a native and an immigrant) within a given territorial district. Our investigations are twofold. From a theoretical perspective, we develop novel techniques, complementary to classical methods (e.g., historical series and logistic regression), in order to detect possible collective features underlying the empirical behaviors; from an experimental perspective, we evidence a clear outline for the evolution of the social quantifiers considered. The comparison between experimental results and theoretical predictions is excellent and allows speculating that France, Italy and Spain display a certain degree of internal heterogeneity, that is not found in Germany and Switzerland; such heterogeneity, quite mild in France and in Spain, is not negligible in Italy and highlights quantitative differences in the habits of Northern and Southern regions. These findings may suggest the persistence of two culturally distinct communities, long-term lasting heritages of different and well-established customs. Also, we find qualitative differences between the evolution of autochthonous and of mixed marriages: for the former imitation in decisional mechanisms seems to play a key role (and this results in a square root relation between the number of autochthonous marriages versus the percentage of possible couples inside that country), while for the latter the emerging behavior can be recovered (in most cases) with elementary models with no interactions, suggesting weak imitation patterns between natives and migrants (and this translates in a linear growth for the number of mixed marriages versus the percentage of possible mixed couples in the country). However, the case of mixed marriages displays a more complex phenomenology, where further details (e.g., the provenance and the status of migrants, linguistic barriers, etc.) should also be accounted for.
在这项工作中,我们将统计力学的典型技术和操作方法应用于一个关于关键社会量化指标的大型数据集,并比较五个欧洲国家(即法国、德国、意大利、西班牙和瑞士)的结果行为。所考虑的社会量化指标为:i. 给定地区内本土婚姻(即两个本地人之间的婚姻)数量的演变;ii. 给定地区内异族婚姻(即本地人与移民之间的婚姻)数量的演变。我们的研究有两个方面。从理论角度来看,我们开发了新颖的技术,作为对经典方法(如历史序列和逻辑回归)的补充,以便检测经验行为背后可能存在的集体特征;从实验角度来看,我们为所考虑的社会量化指标的演变勾勒出了清晰的轮廓。实验结果与理论预测之间的比较非常出色,这使得我们能够推测,法国、意大利和西班牙表现出一定程度的内部异质性,而德国和瑞士则没有这种异质性;这种异质性在法国和西班牙较为轻微,但在意大利不可忽视,并且凸显了南北地区在习惯上的数量差异。这些发现可能表明存在两个文化上截然不同的群体,它们是不同且成熟习俗的长期遗产。此外,我们发现本土婚姻和异族婚姻的演变存在质的差异:对于前者,决策机制中的模仿似乎起着关键作用(这导致本土婚姻数量与该国可能的夫妻比例之间存在平方根关系),而对于后者,新兴行为(在大多数情况下)可以用无相互作用的基本模型来恢复,这表明本地人与移民之间的模仿模式较弱(这意味着异族婚姻数量与该国可能的异族夫妻比例呈线性增长)。然而,异族婚姻的情况表现出更复杂的现象学,其中还应考虑进一步的细节(例如移民的来源和身份、语言障碍等)。