来自认知功能与衰老研究I和II的二十年痴呆症发病率比较。
A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II.
作者信息
Matthews F E, Stephan B C M, Robinson L, Jagger C, Barnes L E, Arthur A, Brayne C
机构信息
MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, Cambridge CB2 0SR, UK.
Institute of Health and Society, Faculty of Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle NE4 5PL, UK.
出版信息
Nat Commun. 2016 Apr 19;7:11398. doi: 10.1038/ncomms11398.
Dramatic global increases in future numbers of people with dementia have been predicted. No multicentre population-based study powered to detect changes over time has reported dementia incidence. MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (CFAS) undertook baseline interviews in populations aged 65+ years in England and Wales (1989-1994). Three areas (CFAS I) were selected for new sampling two decades later (2008-2011) with same geographical boundaries, sampling and approach methods (CFAS II). At 2 years CFAS I interviewed 5,156 (76% response) with 5,288 interviewed in CFAS II (74% response). Here we report a 20% drop in incidence (95% CI: 0-40%), driven by a reduction in men across all ages above 65. In the UK we estimate 209,600 new dementia cases per year. This study was uniquely designed to test for differences across geography and time. A reduction of age-specific incidence means that the numbers of people estimated to develop dementia in any year has remained relatively stable.
据预测，未来痴呆症患者数量将在全球范围内急剧增加。目前尚无一项基于多中心人群且有足够能力检测随时间变化情况的研究报告过痴呆症发病率。医学研究委员会认知功能与衰老研究（CFAS）在英格兰和威尔士对65岁及以上人群进行了基线访谈（1989 - 1994年）。二十年后（2008 - 2011年），在相同地理边界、采用相同抽样和方法的情况下，选取了三个地区进行重新抽样（CFAS II）。CFAS I在两年内访谈了5156人（应答率76%），CFAS II访谈了5288人（应答率74%）。在此我们报告，发病率下降了20%（95%置信区间：0 - 40%），这是由65岁以上各年龄段男性发病率下降所致。在英国，我们估计每年有209,600例新发痴呆症病例。本研究经过独特设计，旨在检测不同地区和不同时间之间的差异。特定年龄发病率的下降意味着预计每年患痴呆症的人数相对保持稳定。
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