Drozdovitch Vladimir, Chumak Vadim, Kesminiene Ausrele, Ostroumova Evgenia, Bouville André
Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA.
J Radiol Prot. 2016 Sep;36(3):R36-R73. doi: 10.1088/0952-4746/36/3/R36. Epub 2016 Jun 29.
On 26 April 2016, thirty years will have elapsed since the occurrence of the Chernobyl accident, which has so far been the most severe in the history of the nuclear reactor industry. Numerous epidemiological studies were conducted to evaluate the possible health consequences of the accident. Since the credibility of the association between the radiation exposure and health outcome is highly dependent on the adequacy of the dosimetric quantities used in these studies, this paper makes an effort to overview the methods used to estimate individual doses and the associated uncertainties in the main analytical epidemiological studies (i.e. cohort or case-control) related to the Chernobyl accident. Based on the thorough analysis and comparison with other radiation studies, the authors conclude that individual doses for the Chernobyl analytical epidemiological studies have been calculated with a relatively high degree of reliability and well-characterized uncertainties, and that they compare favorably with many other non-Chernobyl studies. The major strengths of the Chernobyl studies are: (1) they are grounded on a large number of measurements, either performed on humans or made in the environment; and (2) extensive effort has been invested to evaluate the uncertainties associated with the dose estimates. Nevertheless, gaps in the methodology are identified and suggestions for the possible improvement of the current dose estimates are made.
2016年4月26日，切尔诺贝利事故发生已过去三十年，该事故是核反应堆行业历史上迄今为止最严重的事故。人们开展了大量流行病学研究，以评估该事故可能对健康造成的影响。由于辐射暴露与健康后果之间关联的可信度高度依赖于这些研究中所使用剂量学量的充分性，本文致力于概述在与切尔诺贝利事故相关的主要分析性流行病学研究（即队列研究或病例对照研究）中用于估算个体剂量的方法以及相关的不确定性。通过深入分析并与其他辐射研究进行比较，作者得出结论，切尔诺贝利分析性流行病学研究中的个体剂量计算具有较高的可靠性，不确定性也得到了很好的表征，并且与许多其他非切尔诺贝利研究相比具有优势。切尔诺贝利研究的主要优势在于：（1）它们基于大量在人体上进行的测量或在环境中进行的测量；（2）已投入大量精力来评估与剂量估算相关的不确定性。然而，研究方法中仍存在差距，并针对当前剂量估算可能的改进提出了建议。
