精神病学中风险预测的无效性。
The futility of risk prediction in psychiatry.
机构信息
Roger Mulder, MB ChB, PhD, FRANZCP, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand; Giles Newton-Howes, MRCPsych, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand; Jeremy W. Coid, MB ChB, MD(Lond), FRCPsych, MPhilDipCriminol, Violence Prevention Research Unit, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University, London, UK
Roger Mulder, MB ChB, PhD, FRANZCP, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand; Giles Newton-Howes, MRCPsych, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand; Jeremy W. Coid, MB ChB, MD(Lond), FRCPsych, MPhilDipCriminol, Violence Prevention Research Unit, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University, London, UK.
出版信息
Br J Psychiatry. 2016 Oct;209(4):271-272. doi: 10.1192/bjp.bp.116.184960.
Significant efforts have been made to identify risk factors associated with suicide. However, the evidence suggests that risk categorisation may be of limited value, or worse, potentially harmful, confusing clinical thinking. We argue instead for a shift in focus towards real engagement with the individual patient, their specific problems and circumstances.
已经做出了重大努力来识别与自杀相关的风险因素。然而，证据表明，风险分类可能价值有限，甚至更糟的是，可能具有潜在的危害性，会使临床思维变得混乱。因此，我们主张将重点转向与个体患者、他们的具体问题和情况进行真正的接触。
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