Barrett Scott
School of International and Public Affairs & Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Dec 20;113(51):14515-14522. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1604989113. Epub 2016 Nov 7.
The fates of "transboundary" environmental systems depend on how nation states interact with one another. In the absence of a hegemon willing and able to coerce other states into avoiding a "tragedy of the commons," shared environments will be safeguarded if international cooperation succeeds and degraded or even destroyed if it fails. Treaties and related institutions of international law give form to these efforts to cooperate. Often, they implore states to act in their collective (as opposed to their national) interests. Sometimes, they impel cooperating states to punish free riders. A few agreements coordinate states' behavior. Here, I present simple game-theoretic models showing whether and how treaties and related institutions can change incentives, aligning states' self-interests with their collective interests. I show that, as a general matter, states struggle to cooperate voluntarily and enforce agreements to cooperate but that they find it relatively easy to coordinate actions. In some cases, the need for coordination is manifest. In other cases, it requires strategic thinking. Coordination may fall short of supporting an ideal outcome, but it nearly always works better than the alternatives.
“跨界”环境系统的命运取决于民族国家之间的互动方式。在缺乏一个愿意且有能力迫使其他国家避免“公地悲剧”的霸权国家的情况下,如果国际合作取得成功,共享环境将得到保护;如果合作失败,共享环境将退化甚至遭到破坏。条约和相关国际法制度体现了这些合作努力。它们常常恳请各国按照其集体利益(而非国家利益)行事。有时,它们促使合作国家惩罚搭便车者。一些协议协调各国的行为。在此,我提出简单的博弈论模型,以说明条约和相关制度能否以及如何改变激励机制,使各国的自身利益与其集体利益保持一致。我表明,一般而言,各国在自愿合作及执行合作协议方面存在困难,但它们发现协调行动相对容易。在某些情况下,协调的必要性显而易见。在其他情况下,则需要进行战略思考。协调可能无法实现理想结果,但几乎总是比其他选择效果更好。