Long-term MODIS observations of cyanobacterial dynamics in Lake Taihu: Responses to nutrient enrichment and meteorological factors.

We developed and validated an empirical model for estimating chlorophyll a concentrations (Chla) in Lake Taihu to generate a long-term Chla and algal bloom area time series from MODIS-Aqua observations for 2003 to 2013. Then, based on the long-term time series data, we quantified the responses of cyanobacterial dynamics to nutrient enrichment and climatic conditions. Chla showed substantial spatial and temporal variability. In addition, the annual mean cyanobacterial surface bloom area exhibited an increasing trend across the entire lake from 2003 to 2013, with the exception of 2006 and 2007. High air temperature and phosphorus levels in the spring can prompt cyanobacterial growth, and low wind speeds and low atmospheric pressure levels favor cyanobacterial surface bloom formation. The sensitivity of cyanobacterial dynamics to climatic conditions was found to vary by region. Our results indicate that temperature is the most important factor controlling Chla inter-annual variability followed by phosphorus and that air pressure is the most important factor controlling cyanobacterial surface bloom formation followed by wind speeds in Lake Taihu.