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基于观测的全球冰川质量变化及其对海平面变化贡献的估计

Observation-Based Estimates of Global Glacier Mass Change and Its Contribution to Sea-Level Change.

作者信息

Marzeion B, Champollion N, Haeberli W, Langley K, Leclercq P, Paul F

机构信息

Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Postfach 330 440, 28334 Bremen, Germany.

International Space Science Institute, Hallerstrasse 6, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.

出版信息

Surv Geophys. 2017;38(1):105-130. doi: 10.1007/s10712-016-9394-y. Epub 2016 Nov 11.

Abstract

Glaciers have strongly contributed to sea-level rise during the past century and will continue to be an important part of the sea-level budget during the twenty-first century. Here, we review the progress in estimating global glacier mass change from in situ measurements of mass and length changes, remote sensing methods, and mass balance modeling driven by climate observations. For the period before the onset of satellite observations, different strategies to overcome the uncertainty associated with monitoring only a small sample of the world's glaciers have been developed. These methods now yield estimates generally reconcilable with each other within their respective uncertainty margins. Whereas this is also the case for the recent decades, the greatly increased number of estimates obtained from remote sensing reveals that gravimetry-based methods typically arrive at lower mass loss estimates than the other methods. We suggest that strategies for better interconnecting the different methods are needed to ensure progress and to increase the temporal and spatial detail of reliable glacier mass change estimates.

摘要

在过去的一个世纪里,冰川对海平面上升起到了重要作用,并且在21世纪仍将是海平面收支的重要组成部分。在此,我们回顾了通过实地测量质量和长度变化、遥感方法以及由气候观测驱动的质量平衡模型来估算全球冰川质量变化方面取得的进展。对于卫星观测开始之前的时期,已经开发出了不同的策略来克服仅监测世界上一小部分冰川所带来的不确定性。现在,这些方法得出的估计值在各自的不确定性范围内通常是相互一致的。近几十年来情况也是如此,然而,从遥感获得的估计数量大幅增加,这表明基于重力测量的方法通常比其他方法得出的质量损失估计值更低。我们建议,需要采取策略来更好地将不同方法相互联系起来,以确保取得进展,并增加可靠的冰川质量变化估计的时间和空间细节。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f0de/5283499/a237a710c5e9/10712_2016_9394_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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