Rogers Wendy A, Mitzner Tracy L
654 Cherry Street, School of Psychology, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332-0170, USA.
Futures. 2017 Mar;87:133-139. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2016.07.002. Epub 2016 Jul 5.
Envisioning the future of older adults of 2050 is a challenging task given the heterogeneity of the older adult population. We consider primarily the domains of home, health, and social participation for individuals over age 65 and the potential role of information, communication, and robotic technology for enhanced independence, maintenance of autonomy, and enriched quality of life. We develop several scenarios to illustrate the diversity of circumstances, health, and living situations for older adults in the future. We discuss possible negative outcomes resulting from the proliferation of technology, including increased social isolation and a widening digital divide. However, we focus primarily on envisioning desired situations wherein older adults have autonomy and independence; are easily able to manage their health and wellness needs; have rich and rewarding opportunities for social connectedness, personal growth, continued life purpose, and overall high quality of life. To attain this future, we must be acting now: designing the technology with involvement by today's older adults who represent the needs and capabilities of tomorrow's older adults; developing the necessary infrastructure to support widespread availability and deployment of these technologies; and supporting the integration of technology into people's lives at younger ages with adaptive functionality to support changing needs and preferences.
鉴于老年人群体的异质性,展望2050年老年人的未来是一项具有挑战性的任务。我们主要考虑65岁以上人群在家庭、健康和社会参与方面的领域,以及信息、通信和机器人技术在增强独立性、维持自主性和丰富生活质量方面的潜在作用。我们制定了几种情景,以说明未来老年人在环境、健康和生活状况方面的多样性。我们讨论了技术扩散可能带来的负面结果,包括社会隔离加剧和数字鸿沟扩大。然而,我们主要关注设想理想的情景,即老年人拥有自主性和独立性;能够轻松管理自己的健康和保健需求;有丰富而有意义的社交联系、个人成长、持续生活目标以及总体高质量生活的机会。为了实现这一未来,我们现在必须采取行动:在当今代表未来老年人需求和能力的老年人参与下设计技术;开发必要的基础设施,以支持这些技术的广泛可用性和部署;并支持在年轻人中随着年龄增长将技术融入他们的生活,并具备适应性功能以支持不断变化的需求和偏好。