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韩国六个城市的日平均气温与尿石症发病情况:时间序列分析

Daily Mean Temperature and Urolithiasis Presentation in Six Cities in Korea: Time-Series Analysis.

作者信息

Chi Byung Hoon, Chang In Ho, Choi Se Young, Suh Dong Churl, Chang Chong Won, Choi Yun Jung, Lee Seo Yeon

机构信息

Department of Urology, Chung-Ang University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.

Department of Pharmacology, Chung-Ang University College of Pharmacology, Seoul, Korea.

出版信息

J Korean Med Sci. 2017 Jun;32(6):999-1008. doi: 10.3346/jkms.2017.32.6.999.

Abstract

Seasonal variation in urinary stone presentation is well described in the literature. However, previous studies have some limitations. To explore overall cumulative exposure-response and the heterogeneity in the relationships between daily meteorological factors and urolithiasis incidence in 6 major Korean cities, we analyzed data on 687,833 urolithiasis patients from 2009 to 2013 for 6 large cities in Korea: Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan. Using a time-series design and distributing lag nonlinear methods, we estimated the relative risk (RR) of mean daily urolithiasis incidence (MDUI) associated with mean daily meteorological factors, including the cumulative RR for a 20-day period. The estimated location-specific associations were then pooled using multivariate meta-regression models. A positive association was confirmed between MDUI and mean daily temperature (MDT), and a negative association was shown between MDUI and mean daily relative humidity (MDRH) in all cities. The lag effect was within 5 days. The multivariate Cochran Q test for heterogeneity at MDT was 12.35 (P = 0.136), and the related I² statistic accounted for 35.2% of the variability. Additionally, the Cochran Q test for heterogeneity and I² statistic at MDHR were 26.73 (P value = 0.148) and 24.7% of variability in the total group. Association was confirmed between daily temperature, relative humidity and urolithiasis incidence, and the differences in urolithiasis incidence might have been partially attributable to the different frequencies and the ranges in temperature and humidity between cities in Korea.

摘要

尿石症发病的季节性变化在文献中有详细描述。然而,以往的研究存在一些局限性。为了探讨韩国6个主要城市每日气象因素与尿石症发病率之间的总体累积暴露-反应关系及异质性,我们分析了2009年至2013年韩国6个大城市(首尔、仁川、大田、光州、大邱和釜山)687,833例尿石症患者的数据。采用时间序列设计和分布滞后非线性方法,我们估计了与每日平均气象因素相关的每日平均尿石症发病率(MDUI)的相对风险(RR),包括20天期间的累积RR。然后使用多变量meta回归模型汇总估计的特定地点关联。在所有城市中,均证实MDUI与每日平均温度(MDT)呈正相关,MDUI与每日平均相对湿度(MDRH)呈负相关。滞后效应在5天内。MDT异质性的多变量Cochran Q检验为12.35(P = 0.136),相关的I²统计量占变异性的35.2%。此外,MDHR异质性的Cochran Q检验和I²统计量分别为26.73(P值 = 0.148)和总组变异性的24.7%。证实了每日温度、相对湿度与尿石症发病率之间的关联,尿石症发病率的差异可能部分归因于韩国各城市温度和湿度的不同频率及范围。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d95a/5426253/2fd7b0966b84/jkms-32-999-g001.jpg

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