Jeong J, Smith C S, Peel A J, Plowright R K, Kerlin D H, McBroom J, McCallum H
Griffith Wildlife Disease Ecology Group, Environmental Futures Research Institute, School of Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia.
School of Veterinary Science, University of Queensland, Gatton, Queensland, Australia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2017 Jul;145(10):2053-2061. doi: 10.1017/S0950268817000991. Epub 2017 May 22.
Understanding viral transmission dynamics within populations of reservoir hosts can facilitate greater knowledge of the spillover of emerging infectious diseases. While bat-borne viruses are of concern to public health, investigations into their dynamics have been limited by a lack of longitudinal data from individual bats. Here, we examine capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from a species of Australian bat (Myotis macropus) infected with a putative novel Alphacoronavirus within a Bayesian framework. Then, we developed epidemic models to estimate the effect of persistently infectious individuals (which shed viruses for extensive periods) on the probability of viral maintenance within the study population. We found that the CMR data analysis supported grouping of infectious bats into persistently and transiently infectious bats. Maintenance of coronavirus within the study population was more likely in an epidemic model that included both persistently and transiently infectious bats, compared with the epidemic model with non-grouping of bats. These findings, using rare CMR data from longitudinal samples of individual bats, increase our understanding of transmission dynamics of bat viral infectious diseases.
了解储存宿主群体内的病毒传播动态有助于更深入地了解新发传染病的溢出情况。虽然蝙蝠传播的病毒引起了公众健康关注，但对其动态的研究因缺乏来自个体蝙蝠的纵向数据而受到限制。在此，我们在贝叶斯框架下检查了感染一种假定新型甲型冠状病毒的澳大利亚蝙蝠（大耳蝠）的标记重捕（CMR）数据。然后，我们开发了流行病模型来估计持续感染个体（长时间排毒的个体）对研究群体内病毒维持概率的影响。我们发现，CMR数据分析支持将感染蝙蝠分为持续感染和短暂感染蝙蝠。与不分组的蝙蝠流行病模型相比，在一个同时包含持续感染和短暂感染蝙蝠的流行病模型中，冠状病毒在研究群体内维持的可能性更大。这些利用来自个体蝙蝠纵向样本的罕见CMR数据得出的发现，增进了我们对蝙蝠病毒性传染病传播动态的理解。
