Weinberg Clarice R, Shi Min, Basso Olga, DeRoo Lisa A, Harmon Quaker, Wilcox Allen J, Skjærven Rolv
Biostatistics and Computational Biology Branch, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences , Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Environ Health Perspect. 2017 Jun 29;125(6):067022. doi: 10.1289/EHP963.
Preeclampsia (PE) is a dangerous and unpredictable pregnancy complication. A seasonal pattern of risk would suggest that there are potentially preventable environmental contributors, but prior analyses have not adjusted for confounding by PE risk factors that are associated with season of conception.
Seasonal effects were modeled and tested by representing each day of the year as an angle on a unit circle and using trigonometric functions of those angles in predictive models, using "harmonic analysis." We applied harmonic Cox regression to model confounder-adjusted effects of the estimated day of the year of conception on risk of PE for births from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway for deliveries between 1999 and 2009. We also examined effect measure modification by parity, latitude (region), fetal sex, and smoking.
In adjusted models, PE risk was related to season, with higher risk in spring conceptions and lower risk in autumn conceptions, with a risk amplitude (maximum compared with minimum) of about 20%. The pattern replicated across subpopulations defined by parity, latitude (region), fetal sex, and smoking.
These results suggest that there is a seasonal driver for PE, with effects that are not modified by parity, latitude, fetal sex, or smoking. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP963.
子痫前期(PE)是一种危险且不可预测的妊娠并发症。风险的季节性模式表明可能存在潜在可预防的环境因素,但先前的分析并未对与受孕季节相关的PE风险因素的混杂情况进行调整。
通过将一年中的每一天表示为单位圆上的一个角度,并在预测模型中使用这些角度的三角函数,采用“谐波分析”对季节性效应进行建模和测试。我们应用谐波Cox回归来模拟对挪威医疗出生登记处1999年至2009年分娩的出生队列中,估计受孕日期对PE风险的混杂因素调整效应。我们还研究了产次、纬度(地区)、胎儿性别和吸烟对效应测量的修正作用。
在调整后的模型中,PE风险与季节相关,春季受孕风险较高,秋季受孕风险较低,风险幅度(最大值与最小值相比)约为20%。该模式在由产次、纬度(地区)、胎儿性别和吸烟定义的亚组中重复出现。
这些结果表明,PE存在季节性驱动因素,其效应不受产次、纬度、胎儿性别或吸烟的影响。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP963