Zhang Kui, Fan Fei, Tu Meng, Cui Jing-Hui, Li Jing-Song, Peng Zhao, Deng Zhen-Hua
Department of Forensic Pathology, West China School of Basic Medical Sciences & Forensic Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, People's Republic of China.
Department of Radiology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, People's Republic of China.
Int J Legal Med. 2018 May;132(3):791-798. doi: 10.1007/s00414-017-1646-y. Epub 2017 Jul 17.
To establish population-specific age estimation models in adults from costal cartilage for contemporary Chinese by using three-dimensional volume-rendering technique. Five hundred and twelve individuals (254 females and 258 males) with documented ages between 20 and 85 years were retrospectively included. Their clinical CT examinations (1 mm slice thickness) were used to develop the sex-specific age prediction model. A validation sample comprising 26 female and 24 male individuals was then used to test the predictive accuracy of the established models. Simple linear regression (SLR), multiple linear regression (MLR), gradient boosting regression (GBR), support vector machine (SVM), and decision tree regression (DTR) were utilized to build the age diagnosis models from calibration samples. By comparison, the decision tree regression was the relatively more accurate age prediction model for male, with mean absolute error = 5.31 years, least absolute error = 0.10 years, correct percentage within 5 years = 54%, and the correct percentage within 10 years = 88%. The stepwise multiple linear regression equations was the relatively more accurate one for female, with mean absolute error = 6.72 years, least absolute error = 0.68 years, correct percentage within 5 years = 42%, and correct percentage within 10 years = 77%. Our results indicated that the present established age estimation model can be applied as an additional guidance for age estimation in adults.
运用三维容积再现技术,为当代中国人建立基于肋软骨的特定人群成人年龄估计模型。回顾性纳入512名年龄在20至85岁之间且有年龄记录的个体(254名女性和258名男性)。利用他们的临床CT检查(层厚1毫米)建立性别特异性年龄预测模型。随后使用一个包含26名女性和24名男性个体的验证样本,来检验所建立模型的预测准确性。利用简单线性回归(SLR)、多元线性回归(MLR)、梯度提升回归(GBR)、支持向量机(SVM)和决策树回归(DTR),根据校准样本建立年龄诊断模型。相比之下,决策树回归是男性相对更准确的年龄预测模型,平均绝对误差=5.31岁,最小绝对误差=0.10岁,5年内正确百分比=54%,10年内正确百分比=88%。逐步多元线性回归方程是女性相对更准确的模型,平均绝对误差=6.72岁,最小绝对误差=0.68岁,5年内正确百分比=42%,10年内正确百分比=77%。我们的结果表明,目前建立的年龄估计模型可作为成人年龄估计的额外指导。