Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico 87545
Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico 87545.
Genetics. 2017 Nov;207(3):1089-1101. doi: 10.1534/genetics.117.300284. Epub 2017 Sep 14.
Diversity of the founding population of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) transmissions raises many important biological, clinical, and epidemiological issues. In up to 40% of sexual infections, there is clear evidence for multiple founding variants, which can influence the efficacy of putative prevention methods, and the reconstruction of epidemiologic histories. To infer who-infected-whom, and to compute the probability of alternative transmission scenarios while explicitly taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account, we created an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method based on a set of statistics measuring phylogenetic topology, branch lengths, and genetic diversity. We applied our method to a suspected heterosexual transmission case involving three individuals, showing a complex monophyletic-paraphyletic-polyphyletic phylogenetic topology. We detected that seven phylogenetic lineages had been transmitted between two of the individuals based on the available samples, implying that many more unsampled lineages had also been transmitted. Testing whether the lineages had been transmitted at one time or over some length of time suggested that an ongoing superinfection process over several years was most likely. While one individual was found unlinked to the other two, surprisingly, when evaluating two competing epidemiological priors, the donor of the two that did infect each other was not identified by the host root-label, and was also not the primary suspect in that transmission. This highlights that it is important to take epidemiological information into account when analyzing support for one transmission hypothesis over another, as results may be nonintuitive and sensitive to details about sampling dates relative to possible infection dates. Our study provides a formal inference framework to include information on infection and sampling times, and to investigate ancestral node-label states, transmission direction, transmitted genetic diversity, and frequency of transmission.
人类免疫缺陷病毒 1 型(HIV-1)传播的创始人群体的多样性引发了许多重要的生物学、临床和流行病学问题。在多达 40%的性传播感染中,有明确证据表明存在多种创始变体,这可能会影响到潜在预防方法的效果,以及流行病学史的重建。为了推断谁感染了谁,并在明确考虑系统发育不确定性的情况下计算替代传播场景的可能性,我们创建了一种基于测量系统发育拓扑、分支长度和遗传多样性的统计数据的近似贝叶斯计算 (ABC) 方法。我们将我们的方法应用于一个涉及三个人的疑似异性传播案例,结果显示了一个复杂的单系-并系-多系系统发育拓扑。我们发现,基于现有的样本,有七个进化谱系在两个人之间传播,这意味着还有更多未采样的谱系也被传播了。测试谱系是否在一次或一段时间内传播,表明在几年内发生持续的超感染过程的可能性最大。虽然一个个体与其他两个个体没有关联,但令人惊讶的是,在评估两种竞争的流行病学先验假设时,没有被两个感染者感染的个体的供体没有通过宿主根标签来识别,而且也不是该传播的主要嫌疑人。这突出表明,在分析一个传播假说相对于另一个传播假说的支持时,考虑流行病学信息非常重要,因为结果可能不符合直观认识,并且对采样日期相对于可能的感染日期的细节很敏感。我们的研究提供了一个正式的推断框架,以包括感染和采样时间的信息,并调查祖先节点标签状态、传播方向、传播的遗传多样性和传播频率。