Chinn Sedona, Lane Daniel S, Hart Philip S
University of Michigan, USA.
Public Underst Sci. 2018 Oct;27(7):807-823. doi: 10.1177/0963662518791094. Epub 2018 Jul 30.
Scholars have recently suggested that communicating levels of scientific consensus (e.g. the percentage of scientists who agree about human-caused climate change) can shift public opinion toward the dominant scientific opinion. Initial research suggested that consensus communication effectively reduces public skepticism. However, other research failed to find a persuasive effect for those with conflicting prior beliefs. This study enters this contested space by experimentally testing how different levels of consensus shape perceptions of scientific certainty. We further examine how perceptions of certainty influence personal agreement and policy support. Findings indicate that communicating higher levels of consensus increases perceptions of scientific certainty, which is associated with greater personal agreement and policy support for non-political issues. We find some suggestive evidence that this mediated effect is moderated by participants' overall trust in science, such that those with low trust in science fail to perceive higher agreement as indicative of greater scientific certainty.
学者们最近提出，传达科学共识的程度（例如，同意人为导致气候变化的科学家的百分比）可以使公众舆论转向占主导地位的科学观点。初步研究表明，共识传达有效地减少了公众的怀疑态度。然而，其他研究未能发现对那些有冲突的先入之见的人有说服力的效果。本研究通过实验测试不同程度的共识如何塑造对科学确定性的认知，进入了这个有争议的领域。我们进一步研究确定性认知如何影响个人认同和政策支持。研究结果表明，传达更高程度的共识会增加对科学确定性的认知，这与对非政治问题有更大的个人认同和政策支持相关。我们发现一些暗示性证据表明，这种中介效应受到参与者对科学的总体信任的调节，以至于那些对科学信任度低的人不会将更高的共识视为更大科学确定性的指示。
