Cholangiocarcinoma Trends, Incidence, and Relative Survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand From 1989 Through 2013: A Population-Based Cancer Registry Study.

BACKGROUND

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a common malignancy in northeastern Thailand. Over the last 4 decades, several policies have been implemented for its prevention, but there has been no update on the trends and relative survival (RS). Our aim was (a) to perform a statistical assessment of the incidence trends of CCA and project future trends, and (b) to estimate relative survival.

METHODS

All cases of CCA diagnosed from 1989 through 2013 were abstracted from the Khon Kaen Cancer Registry (KKCR). A jointpoint regression model was used to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) and to project future trends. We also calculated RS.

RESULTS

There were 11,711 cases of CCA. The incidence rate increased with an APC of 1.79% (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.2 to 3.8) from 1989 through 2002, and decreased with an APC of -6.09% (95% CI, -8.2 to -3.9) from 2002 through 2013. The projected incidence of CCA should stable over the next 10 years, albeit higher than the world rate. The respective 5-year RS for both sexes for age groups of 30-40, 41-45, 51-60, and 61-98 years was 22.3% (95% CI, 16.8-29.5), 14.3% (95% CI, 12.0-17.0), 8.6% (95% CI, 7.8-10.0), and 7.2% (95% CI, 6.4-8.0).

CONCLUSION

The incidence rate of CCA has decreased since 2002, representing a real decline in the risk of CCA. The incidence of CCA is projected to stabilize by 2025. The survival of patients with CCA remains poor.