Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA.
U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, SO Conte Anadromous Fish Lab, 1 Migratory Way, Turners Falls, MA, 01376, USA.
Nat Commun. 2018 Sep 25;9(1):3926. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-06157-6.
Changing climate will impact species' ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.
当环境变化直接影响到当地种群的数量动态时，气候变化才会影响物种的分布范围。然而，对气候变化下的种群数量动态的测量主要局限于单一物种和单一地点。在这里，我们通过对 86 个北美研究区域的 81 个物种的超过 50 万条时间序列观测，证明了两栖动物群落对气候变异性有响应。气候对本地定居和生存概率的影响在生态区之间存在差异，取决于当地气候、物种生活史和分类学分类。我们发现，本地物种丰富度对繁殖期水分可利用性的变化和冬季条件变化最为敏感。基于我们测量的关系，最近的气候变化并不能解释为什么北美两栖动物的本地物种丰富度迅速下降。然而，气候变化确实解释了为什么某些种群的下降速度比其他种群快。我们的研究结果为了解两栖动物如何应对气候变化提供了重要的见解，并为衡量气候变化对物种丰富度的影响提供了一个通用框架。
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