The early prognostic value of inflammatory markers in patients with acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic markers with the more mature scoring system BISAP in patients with AP and identify the best predictors.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analysed the data of patients with AP who were treated in our hospital from January 2017 to March 2018 and compared the prognostic value of these inflammation-based prognostic markers with the BISAP score in patients with AP.

RESULTS

Higher BISAP score, NLR, PLR, ACC, and BUN gradually increased (all P < 0.05), and lower LMR and TC (P < 0.001) were associated with severity of AP. Compared with the patients without persistent organ failure, the patients with POF were older (P = 0.049) and had a higher BISAP score (P < 0.001), NLR (P = 0.003), PLR (P < 0.001) and ACC (P = 0.047), BUN (P = 0.011), and creatinine (P = 0.023), RDW (P = 0.021), but lower LMR (P = 0.003) and TC (P < 0.001) at baseline. The BISAP score (OR = 2.117, 95% CI 1.487 to 3.016, P < 0.001), NLR (OR = 1.053, 95% CI: 1.009 to 1.101, P = 0.019) and TC (OR = 0.088, 95% CI: 0.024 to 1.030, P < 0.001) were independent factors for predicting SAP. For predicting the occurrence of POF, TC and PLR had an area under the ROC curve (TC AUC = 0.784, P < 0.001, with a 2.18 cut-off value, PLR AUC = 0.731, P < 0.001, with a 173.13 cut-off value) that was not inferior to the BISAP score (AUC = 0.708), and PLR had the best sensitivity (95.8%), BUN had the best specificity (44.71%), respectively. There is no difference in their predictive value for POF.

CONCLUSIONS

NLR and TC are the most powerful markers in this patient series, they have a prognostic value which is not weaker than BISAP, and are equally simple, rapid.