Departments of Gastroenterology and Hepatology.
Emergency Medicine and Intensive Care.
Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2019 Jul;31(7):824-831. doi: 10.1097/MEG.0000000000001339.
Critically ill patients with cirrhosis are at an increased risk of mortality. Our study aimed to externally validate the ability of the prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio (PTAR), an objective and simple scoring system, to predict 90-day mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis.
A total of 865 patients were entered into the study, and all the participants were followed up for at least 90 days. Clinical parameters on the first day of intensive care unit admission were included to compare survivors with nonsurvivors.
After multivariable adjustment, the association between the risk of 90-day mortality and PTAR remained statistically significant with a hazard ratio of 2.71 (95% confidence interval: 1.99-3.68). The PTAR score showed good discrimination ability for predicting 90-day mortality with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.75). To improve its feasibility, we regrouped the PTAR scores into three levels of risk (low risk: <0.55, intermediate risk: 0.55-1.00, and high risk: ≥1.00); the 90-day mortality rates were 20.1% (74/368), 41.7% (168/403), and 73.4% (69/94), respectively.
The PTAR score system is a convenient and practical tool for predicting the prognosis of critically ill patients with cirrhosis.
肝硬化重症患者的死亡率较高。本研究旨在对凝血酶原时间国际标准化比值与白蛋白比值(PTAR)这一客观且简单的评分系统预测肝硬化重症患者 90 天死亡率的能力进行外部验证。
共有 865 例患者入组研究,所有患者的随访时间均至少 90 天。纳入了入住重症监护病房第一天的临床参数,以比较存活者与非存活者。
经多变量调整后,PTAR 与 90 天死亡率风险之间的关联仍具有统计学意义,风险比为 2.71(95%置信区间:1.99-3.68)。PTAR 评分在预测 90 天死亡率方面具有良好的区分能力,受试者工作特征曲线下面积为 0.72(95%置信区间:0.68-0.75)。为了提高其可行性,我们将 PTAR 评分重新分为三个风险等级(低风险:<0.55,中风险:0.55-1.00,高风险:≥1.00);90 天死亡率分别为 20.1%(74/368)、41.7%(168/403)和 73.4%(69/94)。
PTAR 评分系统是预测肝硬化重症患者预后的一种便捷实用的工具。