墨西哥 2005-2015 年凶杀案激增及其对预期寿命和寿命不平等的影响。
Upsurge of Homicides and Its Impact on Life Expectancy and Life Span Inequality in Mexico, 2005-2015.
机构信息
José Manuel Aburto is a PhD candidate with the Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark, and the Lifespan Inequalities research group at Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez is with the Department of Community Health Sciences at the Fielding School of Public Health and California Center for Population Research, University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA).
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 2019 Mar;109(3):483-489. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2018.304878. Epub 2019 Jan 24.
OBJECTIVES
To quantify the effect of the upsurge of violence on life expectancy and life span inequality in Mexico after 2005.
METHODS
We calculated age- and cause-specific contributions to changes in life expectancy and life span inequality conditional on surviving to age 15 years between 1995 and 2015. We analyzed homicides, medically amenable conditions, diabetes, ischemic heart diseases, and traffic accidents by state and sex.
RESULTS
Male life expectancy at age 15 years increased by more than twice in 1995 to 2005 (1.17 years) than in 2005 to 2015 (0.55 years). Life span inequality decreased by more than half a year for males in 1995 to 2005, whereas in 2005 to 2015 the reduction was about 4 times smaller. Homicides for those aged between 15 and 49 years had the largest effect in slowing down male life expectancy and life span inequality. Between 2005 and 2015, three states in the north experienced life expectancy losses while 5 states experienced increased life span inequality.
CONCLUSIONS
Ten years into the upsurge of violence, Mexico has not been able to reduce the homicide levels to those before 2005. Life expectancy and life span inequality stagnated since 2005 for young men at the national level. In some states, males live shorter lives than in 2005, on average, and experience higher uncertainty in their eventual death.
目的
量化 2005 年后墨西哥暴力事件激增对预期寿命和寿命不平等的影响。
方法
我们计算了 1995 年至 2015 年期间，在 15 岁时存活下来的情况下，预期寿命和寿命不平等因年龄和死因而异的变化的年龄和死因特定贡献。我们分析了各州和性别的凶杀案、可治疗的疾病、糖尿病、缺血性心脏病和交通事故。
结果
1995 年至 2005 年，男性 15 岁时的预期寿命增加了 1.17 年，而 2005 年至 2015 年增加了 0.55 年。1995 年至 2005 年，男性的寿命不平等减少了半年以上，而 2005 年至 2015 年，减少幅度约小了 4 倍。15 至 49 岁男性的凶杀案对减缓男性预期寿命和寿命不平等的影响最大。在 2005 年至 2015 年期间，北部的三个州经历了预期寿命的损失，而 5 个州经历了寿命不平等的增加。
结论
在暴力事件激增的 10 年后，墨西哥仍未能将凶杀水平降低到 2005 年以前的水平。自 2005 年以来，全国范围内年轻男性的预期寿命和寿命不平等都停滞不前。在一些州，男性的平均寿命比 2005 年更短，并且最终死亡的不确定性更高。
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