Programmatic outcomes and impact of rapid public sector antiretroviral therapy expansion in adults prior to introduction of the WHO treat-all approach in rural Eswatini.

OBJECTIVES

To assess long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes during rapid HIV programme expansion in the public sector of Eswatini (formerly Swaziland).

METHODS

This is a retrospectively established cohort of HIV-positive adults (≥16 years) who started first-line ART in 25 health facilities in Shiselweni (Eswatini) between 01/2006 and 12/2014. Temporal trends in ART attrition, treatment expansion and ART coverage were described over 9 years. We used flexible parametric survival models to assess the relationship between time to ART attrition and covariates.

RESULTS

Of 24 772 ART initiations, 6% (n = 1488) occurred in 2006, vs. 13% (n = 3192) in 2014. Between these years, median CD4 cell count at ART initiation increased (113-265 cells/mm ). The active treatment cohort expanded 8.4-fold, ART coverage increased 8.0-fold (7.1% in 2006 vs. 56.8% in 2014) and 12-month crude ART retention improved from 71% to 86%. Compared with the pre-decentralisation period (2006-2007), attrition decreased by 5% (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.02) during HIV-TB service decentralisation (2008-2010), by 17% (aHR 0.83, 0.75-0.92) during service consolidation (2011-2012), and by 20% (aHR 0.80, 0.71-0.90) during further treatment expansion (2013-2014). The risk of attrition was higher for young age, male sex, pathological baseline haemoglobin and biochemistry results, more toxic drug regimens, WHO III/IV staging and low CD4 cell count; access to a telephone was protective.

CONCLUSIONS

Programmatic outcomes improved during large expansion of the treatment cohort and increased ART coverage. Changes in ART programming may have contributed to better outcomes.