土壤侵蚀对中国国内移民的影响。
The impact of soil erosion on internal migration in China.
机构信息
Beijing Key Laboratory of Environmental Remote Sensing and Digital Cities, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China.
出版信息
PLoS One. 2019 Apr 16;14(4):e0215124. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215124. eCollection 2019.
The impact of environmental change on internal migration has received wide attention in recent years. Mass internal migration has been a significant economic and social phenomenon in China, and soil erosion is a major environmental problem that impacts sustainable socioeconomic development. This study aims to identify the impact of soil erosion on internal migration in China at the county level based on gravity model by analyzing related data, such as the sixth national population census data and the soil and water conservation survey data. The results of spatial overlay could not identify an obvious relationship between soil erosion and net outmigration in China. The traditional gravity model of migration is modified to analyze the impact of soil erosion on net outmigration while other variables are controlled. The results indicate that only serious soil erosion increases the possibility of outmigration and that the impact is considerably higher in agricultural counties than in non-agricultural counties. In general, the impact of soil erosion on internal migration is far less than the impact of socioeconomic factors.
近年来，环境变化对国内迁移的影响受到了广泛关注。大规模的国内迁移一直是中国一个重要的经济和社会现象，而土壤侵蚀是影响可持续社会经济发展的一个主要环境问题。本研究旨在通过分析相关数据（如第六次全国人口普查数据和水土保持调查数据），基于重力模型，确定土壤侵蚀对中国县级内部迁移的影响。空间叠加的结果未能确定中国土壤侵蚀与净迁出之间存在明显关系。本文修改了传统的迁移重力模型，在控制其他变量的情况下分析土壤侵蚀对净迁出的影响。结果表明，只有严重的土壤侵蚀才会增加迁出的可能性，而且在农业县的影响要高于非农业县。总的来说，土壤侵蚀对国内迁移的影响远小于社会经济因素的影响。
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