Psychol Bull. 2019 Jul;145(7):764. doi: 10.1037/bul0000203.
Reports an error in "What meta-analyses reveal about the replicability of psychological research" by T. D. Stanley, Evan C. Carter and Hristos Doucouliagos (, 2018[Dec], Vol 144[12], 1325-1346). In the article, the Open Science Framework (OSF) URL for the data has now been included in the author note. The online version of this article has been corrected. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2018-51211-001.) Can recent failures to replicate psychological research be explained by typical magnitudes of statistical power, bias or heterogeneity? A large survey of 12,065 estimated effect sizes from 200 meta-analyses and nearly 8,000 papers is used to assess these key dimensions of replicability. First, our survey finds that psychological research is, on average, afflicted with low statistical power. The median of median power across these 200 areas of research is about 36%, and only about 8% of studies have adequate power (using Cohen's 80% convention). Second, the median proportion of the observed variation among reported effect sizes attributed to heterogeneity is 74% (I2). Heterogeneity of this magnitude makes it unlikely that the typical psychological study can be closely replicated when replication is defined as study-level null hypothesis significance testing. Third, the good news is that we find only a small amount of average residual reporting bias, allaying some of the often-expressed concerns about the reach of publication bias and questionable research practices. Nonetheless, the low power and high heterogeneity that our survey finds fully explain recent difficulties to replicate highly regarded psychological studies and reveal challenges for scientific progress in psychology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).
报道了T.D.斯坦利、埃文·C.卡特和赫里斯托斯·杜库里亚戈斯所著的《元分析揭示的心理学研究可重复性》(, 2018[12月], 第144卷[12期], 1325 - 1346页)中的一处错误。在该文章中,数据的开放科学框架(OSF)网址现已包含在作者注释中。本文的网络版本已得到更正。(原始文章的以下摘要出现在记录2018 - 51211 - 001中。)近期心理学研究无法重复的现象能否用统计功效、偏差或异质性的典型大小来解释?一项对来自200项元分析和近8000篇论文的12065个估计效应大小的大型调查被用于评估可重复性的这些关键维度。首先,我们的调查发现,心理学研究平均而言存在统计功效较低的问题。这200个研究领域中功效中位数的中位数约为36%,只有约8%的研究具有足够的功效(采用科恩的80%标准)。其次,报告的效应大小中观察到的变异归因于异质性的中位数比例为74%(I²)。当将重复定义为研究水平的零假设显著性检验时,如此大的异质性使得典型的心理学研究不太可能被精确重复。第三,好消息是我们发现平均残留报告偏差量很小,这缓解了一些人们经常表达的对发表偏差范围和可疑研究行为的担忧。尽管如此,我们的调查发现的低功效和高异质性充分解释了近期在重复备受推崇的心理学研究方面遇到的困难,并揭示了心理学科学进步面临的挑战。(PsycINFO数据库记录(c)2019美国心理学会,保留所有权利)