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断奶犊牛牛呼吸道疾病临床评分系统的建立。

Development of a clinical scoring system for bovine respiratory disease in weaned dairy calves.

机构信息

Veterinary Medicine Teaching and Research Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, Tulare 93274.

Department of Population Health and Reproduction, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis 95616.

出版信息

J Dairy Sci. 2019 Aug;102(8):7329-7344. doi: 10.3168/jds.2018-15474. Epub 2019 Jun 13.

Abstract

Clinical scoring systems for bovine respiratory disease (BRD) in weaned dairy calves have been developed in the past with calves experimentally infected with specific respiratory pathogens. In this prevalent case control study, a BRD clinical scoring system for weaned calves was developed using field data from 689 dairy calves housed in group pens on 5 dairies in California. Of the 689 calves in the study, 89 were selected because they appeared sick based on the display of lethargy, depression, or separation from the group, whereas the remaining 600 were randomly selected. Clinical signs were recorded for all calves, and BRD case status was determined by thoracic auscultation and ultrasound examinations, which were interpreted in parallel. Of the 689 calves, 238 were identified as BRD cases. Five survey-adjusted generalized linear mixed models with a logit link function, calf as the unit of analysis, and dairy as a random intercept were assessed using 3-fold cross-validation. The best model chosen based on performance and parsimony contained the variables cough (2 points), abnormal respiration (1 point), low body condition (5 points), sunken eyes (4 points), and a 24-h ambient temperature range >15°C (1 point) with a 2-point cutoff for a BRD suspect score. An alternative model did not contain a score for the covariate 24-h ambient temperature range and had a 1-point cutoff. The best model was tested on 174 observations not used for model training and resulted in 77.0% screening sensitivity, 100% diagnostic sensitivity, and 61.9% specificity. Adding rectal temperature ≥39.2°C (102.5°F) as a second-tier test increased specificity to 76.7% and lowered the screening sensitivity to 64.8% and diagnostic sensitivity to 76.9%. The alternative model had a screening sensitivity of 84.2%, diagnostic sensitivity of 100%, and specificity of 45.7%. Adding rectal temperature ≥39.2°C (102.5°F) as a second-tier test for score-positive animals improved specificity of the alternative model to 62.6% while lowering its screening sensitivity to 70.5% and diagnostic sensitivity to 76.9%. Use of a 2-tier California BRD postweaning scoring system may provide producers and veterinarians with a new tool to monitor BRD in group-housed dairy calves. Furthermore, the scoring system may aid in judicious medical intervention for BRD cases and reduce unnecessary treatments of animals with antimicrobials.

摘要

在过去,已经为断奶奶牛的牛呼吸道疾病 (BRD) 开发了临床评分系统,这些系统是在实验中用特定的呼吸道病原体感染小牛的基础上建立的。在本流行病例对照研究中,使用来自加利福尼亚州 5 个奶牛场的 689 头在群体围栏中饲养的断奶小牛的现场数据,开发了一种用于断奶小牛的 BRD 临床评分系统。在研究的 689 头小牛中,选择了 89 头小牛,因为它们表现出昏睡、抑郁或与群体分离等症状,因此被认为是患病的,而其余的 600 头则是随机选择的。对所有小牛进行了临床症状记录,并通过胸部听诊和超声检查来确定 BRD 病例状态,这两种检查方法并行进行。在 689 头小牛中,有 238 头被确定为 BRD 病例。使用 3 倍交叉验证评估了 5 个经过调查调整的具有对数链接函数的广义线性混合模型,其中以小牛为单位分析,奶牛为随机截距。基于性能和简约性选择的最佳模型包含咳嗽 (2 分)、呼吸异常 (1 分)、身体状况不佳 (5 分)、眼睛凹陷 (4 分) 和 24 小时环境温度范围>15°C(1 分),BRD 可疑评分的截断值为 2 分。替代模型不包含 24 小时环境温度范围的协变量评分,截断值为 1 分。在未用于模型训练的 174 个观察值上测试了最佳模型,结果显示其筛查敏感性为 77.0%,诊断敏感性为 100%,特异性为 61.9%。添加直肠温度≥39.2°C(102.5°F)作为二级测试可将特异性提高至 76.7%,同时将筛查敏感性降低至 64.8%和诊断敏感性降低至 76.9%。替代模型的筛查敏感性为 84.2%,诊断敏感性为 100%,特异性为 45.7%。添加直肠温度≥39.2°C(102.5°F)作为评分阳性动物的二级测试,可将替代模型的特异性提高至 62.6%,同时将其筛查敏感性降低至 70.5%和诊断敏感性降低至 76.9%。使用加利福尼亚州的 2 级 BRD 断奶后评分系统可为群体饲养的奶牛场的生产者和兽医提供一种新的工具来监测 BRD。此外,该评分系统可能有助于对 BRD 病例进行明智的医疗干预,并减少对使用抗生素的动物进行不必要的治疗。

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