结合大气二氧化碳增加对蛋白质、铁和锌的可利用性的影响以及气候变化对全球饮食的预测：一项建模研究。
Combining the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on protein, iron, and zinc availability and projected climate change on global diets: a modelling study.
机构信息
RTI International, Environmental and Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
International Food Policy Research Institute, Environment and Production Technology Division, Washington, DC, USA.
出版信息
Lancet Planet Health. 2019 Jul;3(7):e307-e317. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30094-4.
BACKGROUND
Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO) affect global nutrition via effects on agricultural productivity and nutrient content of food crops. We combined these effects with economic projections to estimate net changes in nutrient availability between 2010 and 2050.
METHODS
In this modelling study, we used the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade to project per capita availability of protein, iron, and zinc in 2050. We used estimated changes in productivity of individual agricultural commodities to model effects on production, trade, prices, and consumption under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Two independent sources of data, which used different methodologies to determine the effect of increased atmospheric CO on different key crops, were combined with the modelled food supply results to estimate future nutrient availability.
FINDINGS
Although technological change, market responses, and the effects of CO fertilisation on yield are projected to increase global availability of dietary protein, iron, and zinc, these increases are moderated by negative effects of climate change affecting productivity and carbon penalties on nutrient content. The carbon nutrient penalty results in decreases in the global availability of dietary protein of 4·1%, iron of 2·8%, and zinc of 2·5% as calculated using one dataset, and decreases in global availability of dietary protein of 2·9%, iron of 3·9%, and zinc of 3·4% using the other dataset. The combined effects of projected increases in atmospheric CO (ie, carbon nutrient penalty, CO fertilisation, and climate effects on productivity) will decrease growth in the global availability of nutrients by 19·5% for protein, 14·4% for iron, and 14·6% for zinc relative to expected technology and market gains by 2050. The many countries that currently have high levels of nutrient deficiency would continue to be disproportionately affected.
INTERPRETATION
This approach is an improvement in estimating future global food security by simultaneously projecting climate change effects on crop productivity and changes in nutrient content under increased concentrations of CO, which accounts for a much larger effect on nutrient availability than CO fertilisation. Regardless of the scenario used to project future consumption patterns, the net effect of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO will slow progress in decreasing global nutrient deficiencies.
FUNDING
US Environmental Protection Agency, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CIGAR) Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM), and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change and Food Security (CCAFS).
背景
大气中二氧化碳（CO）浓度的增加会通过影响农业生产力和粮食作物的营养成分来影响全球营养。我们将这些影响与经济预测结合起来，以估计 2010 年至 2050 年间营养供应的净变化。
方法
在这项建模研究中，我们使用国际政策分析农业商品和贸易模型来预测 2050 年的人均蛋白质、铁和锌供应量。我们使用个别农产品生产力的估计变化来模拟在中等和高温室气体排放情景下对生产、贸易、价格和消费的影响。两种独立的数据源，它们使用不同的方法来确定增加大气 CO 对不同关键作物的影响，与模拟的粮食供应结果结合起来，以估计未来的营养供应情况。
结果
尽管技术变革、市场反应以及 CO 施肥对产量的影响预计会增加全球膳食蛋白质、铁和锌的供应，但气候变化对生产力的负面影响以及对营养成分的碳惩罚会缓和这些增加。碳营养惩罚导致使用一个数据集计算的全球膳食蛋白质供应量减少 4.1%，铁减少 2.8%，锌减少 2.5%；使用另一个数据集计算的全球膳食蛋白质供应量减少 2.9%，铁减少 3.9%，锌减少 3.4%。预计大气 CO 浓度增加的综合影响（即碳营养惩罚、CO 施肥以及气候变化对生产力的影响）将使全球营养供应的增长减少 19.5%，蛋白质减少 14.4%，铁减少 14.6%，而到 2050 年，预计技术和市场的收益将增长。目前许多营养缺乏水平较高的国家将继续受到不成比例的影响。
解释
这种方法通过同时预测气候变化对作物生产力的影响以及在增加 CO 浓度下营养成分的变化，来改进估计未来全球粮食安全的方法，这对营养供应的影响比 CO 施肥大得多。无论使用哪种方案来预测未来的消费模式，大气中 CO 浓度的增加都会减缓减少全球营养缺乏的进展。
资金来源
美国环境保护署、国际农业研究磋商组织（CIGAR）政策、机构和市场研究计划（PIM）以及农业研究磋商组织气候变化与粮食安全研究计划（CCAFS）。
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