International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China.
School of Public Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Sep 11;16(18):3353. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16183353.
Reducing carbon emissions is crucial to the sustainable development of tourism. However, there are no consistent conclusions about the nexus between tourism and carbon emissions. Considering the possible nonlinear and spatial effects of tourism on carbon emissions, this paper employed spatial econometric models combined with quadratic terms of explanatory variables to explore the nexus between them using Chinese provincial panel data from 2003 to 2016. The main results are as follows: (1) There is a significant inverse U-shaped relationship between tourism development and carbon emissions. In the provinces whose tourism receipts are relatively low, the effects of tourism on carbon emissions are positive but decrease gradually as the tourism receipts increase and then shifts to negative and continues decreasing gradually when the tourism receipts beyond the critical value. (2) For the geographical proximity and industrial relevance, one province's tourism development not only affects its carbon emissions but also affects its neighbors' carbon emissions through spatial lag effect (indirect effect) which is also inverse U-shaped. (3) Carbon reduction policies, sustainable education, and transportation infrastructure all have significant moderating effects on the relationship between tourism and carbon emissions, but the moderating effect of the management efficiency of tourism is not statistically significant. Furthermore, improvements to the sustainable education and transportation infrastructure not only strengthen the direct negative effect of tourism on carbon emissions but also strengthen the indirect negative effect of tourism on carbon emissions. This study not only advances the existing literature but is also of considerable interest to policymakers.
减少碳排放对旅游业的可持续发展至关重要。然而，关于旅游与碳排放之间的关系，目前还没有一致的结论。考虑到旅游对碳排放的可能非线性和空间效应，本文利用中国 2003 年至 2016 年的省级面板数据，采用空间计量经济学模型和解释变量的二次项，探讨了它们之间的关系。主要结果如下：（1）旅游发展与碳排放之间存在显著的倒 U 型关系。在旅游收入相对较低的省份，旅游对碳排放的影响是正的，但随着旅游收入的增加逐渐减小，然后转变为负，当旅游收入超过临界值时，继续逐渐减小。（2）就地理邻近性和产业相关性而言，一个省份的旅游发展不仅通过空间滞后效应（间接效应）影响其自身的碳排放，也影响其邻居的碳排放，这种间接效应也是倒 U 型的。（3）碳减排政策、可持续教育和交通基础设施对旅游与碳排放之间的关系都具有显著的调节作用，但旅游管理效率的调节作用不具有统计学意义。此外，可持续教育和交通基础设施的改善不仅增强了旅游对碳排放的直接负向影响，也增强了旅游对碳排放的间接负向影响。本研究不仅推进了现有文献，而且对政策制定者也具有重要意义。
