School of Transportation and Logistics, East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang, P.R. China.
Intelligent Transport Systems Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, P.R. China.
Sci Prog. 2020 Jan-Mar;103(1):36850419886471. doi: 10.1177/0036850419886471. Epub 2019 Nov 15.
The prevention of severe injuries during crashes has become one of the leading issues in traffic management and transportation safety. Identifying the impact factors that affect traffic injury severity is critical for reducing the occurrence of severe injuries. In this study, the Fatality Analysis Reporting System data are selected as the dataset for the analysis. An algorithm named improved Markov Blanket was proposed to extract the significant and common factors that affect crash injury severity from 29 variables related to driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, accidents types, road condition, and environment characteristics. The Pearson correlation coefficient test is applied to verify the significant correlation between the selected factors and traffic injury severity. Two widely used classification algorithms (Bayesian networks and C4.5 decision tree) were employed to evaluate the performance of the proposed feature selection algorithm. The calculation result of the correlation coefficient, accuracy of classification, and classification error rate indicated that the improved Markov Blanket not only could extract the significant impact factors but could also improve the accuracy of classification. Meanwhile, the relationship between five selected factors (atmospheric condition, time of crash, alcohol test result, crash type, and driver's distraction) and traffic injury severity was also analyzed in this study. The results indicated that crashes occurred in bad weather condition (e.g. fog or worse), in night time, in drunk driving, in crash type of single driver, and in distracted driving, which are associated with more severe injuries.
在碰撞事故中预防严重伤害已成为交通管理和运输安全的主要问题之一。确定影响交通伤害严重程度的影响因素对于减少严重伤害的发生至关重要。在这项研究中,选择了 Fatality Analysis Reporting System 数据作为分析数据集。提出了一种名为改进的 Markov blankets 的算法,从与驾驶员特征、车辆特征、事故类型、道路条件和环境特征相关的 29 个变量中提取影响碰撞伤害严重程度的显著和共同因素。应用 Pearson 相关系数检验来验证所选因素与交通伤害严重程度之间的显著相关性。使用两种广泛使用的分类算法(贝叶斯网络和 C4.5 决策树)来评估所提出的特征选择算法的性能。相关系数的计算结果、分类的准确性和分类错误率表明,改进的 Markov blankets 不仅可以提取显著的影响因素,而且可以提高分类的准确性。同时,本研究还分析了五个选定因素(大气条件、碰撞时间、酒精测试结果、碰撞类型和驾驶员分心)与交通伤害严重程度之间的关系。结果表明,在恶劣天气条件(如雾或更差)、夜间、酒后驾驶、单驾驶员碰撞类型和驾驶分心的情况下发生的碰撞与更严重的伤害相关。