State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing, 100084, China.
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing, 100084, China.
J Environ Manage. 2020 Apr 15;260:110069. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110069. Epub 2020 Jan 18.
Understanding the air pollution emission abatement potential and associated control cost is a prerequisite to design cost efficient control policies. In this study, a linear programming algorithm model, International Control Cost Estimate Tool, was updated with cost data for applications of 56 types of end-of-pipe technologies and five types of renewable energy in 10 major sectors namely power generation, industry combustion, cement production, iron and steel production, other industry processes, domestic combustion, transportation, solvent use, livestock rearing, and fertilizer use. The updated model was implemented to estimate the abatement potential and marginal cost of multiple pollutants in China. The total maximum abatement potentials of sulfur dioxide (SO), nitrogen oxides (NO), primary particulate matter (PM), non-volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and ammonia (NH) in China were estimated to be 19.2, 20.8, 9.1, 17.2 and 8.6 Mt, respectively, which accounted for 89.7%, 89.9%, 94.6%, 74.0%, and 80.2% of their total emissions in 2014, respectively. The associated control cost of such reductions was estimated as 92.5, 469.7, 75.7, 449.0, and 361.8 billion CNY in SO, NO, primary PM, NMVOCs and NH, respectively. Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Zhejiang, and Guangdong provinces exhibited large abatement potentials for all pollutants. Provincial disparity analysis shows that high GDP regions tend to have higher reduction potential and total abatement costs. End-of-pipe technologies tended be a cost-efficient way to control pollution in industries processes (i.e., cement plants, iron and steel plants, lime production, building ceramic production, glass and brick production), whereas such technologies were less cost-effective in fossil fuel-related sectors (i.e., power plants, industry combustion, domestic combustion, and transportation) compared with renewable energy. The abatement potentials and marginal abatement cost curves developed in this study can further be used as a crucial component in an integrated model to design optimized cost-efficient control policies.
了解空气污染减排潜力和相关控制成本是设计具有成本效益的控制政策的前提。本研究更新了线性规划算法模型《国际控制成本估算工具》，纳入了 56 种末端治理技术和可再生能源在发电、工业燃烧、水泥生产、钢铁生产、其他工业过程、国内燃烧、交通、溶剂使用、畜牧业和化肥使用等 10 个主要领域的应用成本数据。利用更新后的模型估算了中国多种污染物的减排潜力和边际成本。中国二氧化硫（SO）、氮氧化物（NO）、一次颗粒物（PM）、非挥发性有机化合物（NMVOCs）和氨（NH）的最大减排潜力分别估计为 1920 万吨、2080 万吨、910 万吨、1720 万吨和 860 万吨，分别占 2014 年总排放量的 89.7%、89.9%、94.6%、74.0%和 80.2%。相应的减排控制成本估计为 SO、NO、一次 PM、NMVOCs 和 NH 的 925 亿元、4697 亿元、757 亿元、4490 亿元和 3618 亿元。山东、江苏、河南、浙江和广东等省份对所有污染物都具有较大的减排潜力。省级差异分析表明，高 GDP 地区往往具有更高的减排潜力和总减排成本。末端治理技术似乎是控制工业过程（即水泥厂、钢铁厂、石灰厂、建筑陶瓷厂、玻璃厂和砖厂）污染的一种具有成本效益的方法，而与可再生能源相比，这种技术在与化石燃料相关的部门（即电厂、工业燃烧、国内燃烧和交通）的成本效益较低。本研究开发的减排潜力和边际减排成本曲线可进一步作为综合模型的关键组成部分，用于设计具有成本效益的优化控制政策。
