Jaffray Jean-Yves, Jeleva Meglena
1LIP6, Université Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris 6, Paris, France.
2GAINS-TEPP, Université du Maine, Le Mans, France.
Theory Decis. 2011;71(1):129-149. doi: 10.1007/s11238-009-9162-2. Epub 2009 Jul 18.
In some situations, a decision is best represented by an incompletely analyzed act: conditionally on a given event , the consequences of the decision on sub-events are perfectly known and uncertainty becomes probabilizable, whereas the plausibility of this event itself remains vague and the decision outcome on the complementary event is imprecisely known. In this framework, we study an axiomatic decision model and prove a representation theorem. Resulting decision criteria aggregate partial evaluations consisting of (i) the conditional expected utility associated with the analyzed part of the decision, and (ii) the best and worst consequences of its non-analyzed part. The representation theorem is consistent with a wide variety of decision criteria, which allows for expressing various degrees of knowledge on () and various types of attitude toward ambiguity and uncertainty. This diversity is taken into account by specific models already existing in the literature. We exploit this fact and propose some particular forms of our model incorporating these models as sub-models and moreover expressing various types of beliefs concerning the relative plausibility of the analyzed and the non-analyzed events ranging from probabilities to complete ignorance that include capacities.
在某些情况下,一个决策最好由一个未完全分析的行为来表示:以给定事件为条件,该决策对子事件的后果是完全已知的,不确定性可以概率化,而该事件本身的似真性仍然模糊,并且互补事件的决策结果也不精确已知。在此框架下,我们研究一种公理决策模型并证明一个表示定理。由此产生的决策标准汇总了由以下部分组成的部分评估:(i)与决策的已分析部分相关的条件期望效用,以及(ii)其未分析部分的最佳和最坏后果。该表示定理与多种决策标准一致,这允许表达关于()的各种知识程度以及对模糊性和不确定性的各种态度类型。文献中已有的特定模型考虑到了这种多样性。我们利用这一事实,提出我们模型的一些特定形式,将这些模型作为子模型纳入其中,而且表达关于已分析事件和未分析事件相对似真性的各种信念类型,范围从概率到包括容量在内的完全无知。