Stone Lewi, He Daihai, Lehnstaedt Stephan, Artzy-Randrup Yael
Biomathematics Unit, School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Mathematical Sciences, School of Science, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia.
Sci Adv. 2020 Jul 24;6(30):eabc0927. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abc0927. eCollection 2020 Jul.
The highly dependent interplay of disease, famine, war, and society is examined based on an extreme period during World War II. Using mathematical modeling, we reassess events during the Holocaust that led to the liquidation of the Warsaw Ghetto (1941-1942), with the eventual goal of deliberately killing ~450,000, mostly Jewish residents, many through widespread starvation and a large-scale typhus epidemic. The Nazis justified genocide supposedly to control the spread of disease. This exemplifies humanity's ability to turn upon itself, based on racially guided epidemiological principles, merely because of the appearance of a bacterium. Deadly disease and starvation dynamics are explored using modeling and the maths of food ration cards. Strangely, the epidemic was curtailed and was brought to a sudden halt before winter, when typhus normally accelerates. A far more massive epidemic outbreak was prevented through the antiepidemic efforts by the often considered incompetent and corrupt ghetto leadership and the Herculean efforts of ghetto doctors.
基于二战期间的一个极端时期,研究了疾病、饥荒、战争和社会之间高度依赖的相互作用。我们运用数学建模,重新评估了大屠杀期间导致华沙隔都清算(1941 - 1942年)的事件,其最终目标是蓄意杀害约45万居民,其中大多是犹太人,许多人死于普遍的饥饿和大规模斑疹伤寒疫情。纳粹为种族灭绝行径辩解,称其目的是控制疾病传播。这例证了人类仅仅因为一种细菌的出现,基于种族导向的流行病学原则而自相残杀的能力。利用建模和食品配给卡的数学方法,探究了致命疾病和饥饿动态。奇怪的是,疫情在冬季来临前得到了遏制并突然停止,而通常情况下斑疹伤寒在冬季会加速传播。通过通常被认为无能且腐败的隔都领导层的抗疫努力以及隔都医生的巨大付出,一场规模大得多的疫情爆发得以避免。