State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Beijing Center for Diseases Prevention and Control, Beijing, China.
J Glob Health. 2020 Dec;10(2):020803. doi: 10.7189/jogh.10.020803.
Since the 1980s, China has undergone significant social change and the incidence of infectious diseases has also changed considerably. Here, we report the epidemiological features and changes in notifiable infectious diseases in China from 1986 to 2016 to explore the factors contributing to the successful control of infectious diseases and the challenges faced in the prevention and control of infectious diseases.
The data of notifiable infectious diseases in China from 1986 to 2016 were collected from the monthly analysis report of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System. Joinpoint regression models were used to examine incidence and mortality trends from 1986 to 2016. IBM SPSS Statistics version 22.0, Excel 2010 and R x64 3.5.2 were used for data analysis.
A total of 132 858 005 cases of notifiable infectious diseases were reported over these 31 years, with an average yearly incidence of 342.14/100 000. There were 284 694 deaths with an average yearly mortality rate of 0.73/100 000. The overall incidence and overall mortality of notifiable infectious diseases both showed a "U" distribution (ie, a decrease, stable, an increase, stable again). The top five diseases in terms of incidence were hand, foot and mouth disease, viral hepatitis, tuberculosis, other infectious causes of diarrhea and dysentery, accounting for 78.0% of all reported cases. The top five causes of death were HIV/AIDS, rabies, tuberculosis, viral hepatitis and epidemic encephalitis B, which accounted for 76.07% of all mortalities. The diseases with the top five fatality rates were rabies, H5N1, H7N9, HIV/AIDS and plague, with rates of 91.06%, 66.07%, 38.51%, 25.19% and 10.31%, respectively.
This analysis will benefit the future monitoring of infectious diseases and public health measures in China.
自 20 世纪 80 年代以来，中国发生了重大的社会变革，传染病的发病率也发生了很大的变化。在这里，我们报告了 1986 年至 2016 年中国法定传染病的流行病学特征和变化，以探讨传染病成功控制的因素以及传染病防治面临的挑战。
从国家传染病监测系统的每月分析报告中收集了 1986 年至 2016 年中国法定传染病的数据。使用 Joinpoint 回归模型来检验 1986 年至 2016 年的发病率和死亡率趋势。使用 IBM SPSS Statistics 版本 22.0、Excel 2010 和 R x64 3.5.2 进行数据分析。
在这 31 年中，共报告了 13285.8 万例法定传染病，年平均发病率为 342.14/10 万。有 284694 人死亡，年平均死亡率为 0.73/10 万。法定传染病的总发病率和总死亡率均呈“U”型分布（即下降、稳定、上升、再次稳定）。发病率排名前五位的疾病是手足口病、病毒性肝炎、肺结核、其他感染性腹泻和痢疾，占报告病例的 78.0%。死亡率排名前五位的疾病是艾滋病、狂犬病、肺结核、病毒性肝炎和乙型脑炎，占死亡人数的 76.07%。病死率排名前五的疾病是狂犬病、H5N1、H7N9、艾滋病和鼠疫，病死率分别为 91.06%、66.07%、38.51%、25.19%和 10.31%。
本分析将有助于中国未来对传染病的监测和公共卫生措施。
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