Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting hematoma expansion in intracerebral hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a clinical nomogram for individualized predicting hematoma expansion (HE) in patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ICH).

METHODS

A total of 1025 patients with ICH were retrospectively enrolled in the development cohort between 2010 and 2016. We identified and integrated significant factors for HE to build a nomogram. The model was subjected to validation with a separate cohort of 397 patients from the 2017-2019. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were measured by concordance index (C-index). The primary outcome was HE, defined as hematoma growth more than 6 mL or 33% increase in the volume.

RESULTS

A total of 1025 patients were included for univariable analysis. HE occurred in 180 patients (17.6%). The time to initial CT (≤6h vs. >6 h; p = 0.001), NIHSS score (0-4 vs. 5-14 vs. ≥15; p = 0.031), CTA spot sign (yes vs. no vs. absent; p = 0.018), hypodensities (p = 0.000), blend sign (p = 0.005), and INR (<1.2 vs. ≥1.2; p = 0.009) were identified and entered into the nomogram. The calibration curves for probability of HE showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index was 0.751. The validation cohort consisted of 397 patients and HE occurred in 78 patients (19.6%). The C-index was 0.743.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a nomogram that can individually predict HE for ICH in Chinese populations. This practical prognostic nomogram may help clinicians make decision of clinical practice and design of clinical studies.