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基于分数阶数学模型的新型冠状病毒肺炎理论与数值分析

Theoretical and numerical analysis of novel COVID-19 via fractional order mathematical model.

作者信息

Ali Amjad, Khan Muhammad Yasin, Sinan Muhammad, Allehiany F M, Mahmoud Emad E, Abdel-Aty Abdel-Haleem, Ali Gohar

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Govt P.G Jahanzeb College Swat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

Department of Mathematics, Islamia College University, Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

出版信息

Results Phys. 2021 Jan;20:103676. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103676. Epub 2020 Dec 10.

Abstract

In the work, author's presents a very significant and important issues related to the health of mankind's. Which is extremely important to realize the complex dynamic of inflected disease. With the help of Caputo fractional derivative, We capture the epidemiological system for the transmission of Novel Coronavirus-19 Infectious Disease (nCOVID-19). We constructed the model in four compartments susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. We obtained the conditions for existence and Ulam's type stability for proposed system by using the tools of non-linear analysis. The author's thoroughly discussed the local and global asymptotical stabilities of underling model upon the disease free, endemic equilibrium and reproductive number. We used the techniques of Laplace Adomian decomposition method for the approximate solution of consider system. Furthermore, author's interpret the dynamics of proposed system graphically via Mathematica, from which we observed that disease can be either controlled to a large extent or eliminate, if transmission rate is reduced and increase the rate of treatment.

摘要

在这项工作中,作者提出了一个与人类健康相关的非常重大且重要的问题。认识感染性疾病的复杂动态极为重要。借助卡普托分数阶导数,我们建立了新型冠状病毒19传染病(nCOVID - 19)传播的流行病学系统。我们构建了一个分为易感、潜伏、感染和康复四个 compartments 的模型。通过使用非线性分析工具,我们获得了所提出系统的存在条件和乌拉姆型稳定性。作者深入讨论了基础模型在无病、地方病平衡点和繁殖数情况下的局部和全局渐近稳定性。我们使用拉普拉斯 - 阿多米安分解方法来求所考虑系统的近似解。此外,作者通过Mathematica以图形方式解释了所提出系统的动态,从中我们观察到,如果降低传播率并提高治疗率,疾病可以在很大程度上得到控制或消除。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0704/7726523/8aafda40dac0/gr1_lrg.jpg

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