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模拟在英国学校和社会中使用口罩对新冠疫情防控的潜在影响。

Modelling the potential impact of mask use in schools and society on COVID-19 control in the UK.

作者信息

Panovska-Griffiths J, Kerr C C, Waites W, Stuart R M, Mistry D, Foster D, Klein D J, Viner R M, Bonell C

机构信息

Department of Applied Health Research, University College London, London, UK.

Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2021 Apr 22;11(1):8747. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-88075-0.

Abstract

As the UK reopened after the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, crucial questions emerged around the role for ongoing interventions, including test-trace-isolate (TTI) strategies and mandatory masks. Here we assess the importance of masks in secondary schools by evaluating their impact over September 1-October 23, 2020. We show that, assuming TTI levels from August 2020 and no fundamental changes in the virus's transmissibility, adoption of masks in secondary schools would have reduced the predicted size of a second wave, but preventing it would have required 68% or 46% of those with symptoms to seek testing (assuming masks' effective coverage 15% or 30% respectively). With masks in community settings but not secondary schools, the required testing rates increase to 76% and 57%.

摘要

随着英国在第一波新冠疫情后重新开放,围绕持续干预措施的作用出现了一些关键问题,包括检测-追踪-隔离(TTI)策略和强制佩戴口罩。在此,我们通过评估2020年9月1日至10月23日期间口罩的影响,来评估其在中学中的重要性。我们表明,假设2020年8月的TTI水平且病毒传播性无根本变化,中学采用口罩本可减少第二波疫情的预测规模,但要防止第二波疫情,分别需要68%或46%出现症状的人进行检测(假设口罩有效覆盖率分别为15%或30%)。若社区场所佩戴口罩而中学不佩戴,所需检测率将增至76%和57%。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6c86/8062670/3898147801e2/41598_2021_88075_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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