主观预期对卫生服务利用的信息含量。

The informational content of subjective expectations for health service use.

机构信息

University of Technology Sydney, 15 Broadway, Ultimo NSW, 2007, Australia.

出版信息

BMC Health Serv Res. 2021 May 17;21(1):464. doi: 10.1186/s12913-021-06464-7.

DOI:10.1186/s12913-021-06464-7

PMID:34001127

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8130259/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

This study aims to evaluate the informational content of people's subjective probability expectations for using various health services.

METHODS

Using a sample of 1,528 Australian adults (25-64 years), I compared stated probabilities of visiting various health service providers (hospitals, dentists, optometrists, physiotherapists and related care providers, naturopaths and massage therapists) with past utilization and with predicted utilization estimated out-of-sample. I also estimated whether past utilization and subjective expectations were predicted by the same covariates. Finally, I estimated whether subjective expectations had predictive power for the choice to purchase private health insurance conditional on past utilization and other controls.

RESULTS

Subjective expectations closely reflect patterns of observed utilization, are predicted by the same covariates as observed utilization, and correlate with objective measures of risk. Subjective expectations also add predictive power to models estimating insurance take-up, even after conditioning on prior health care use and other risk factors.

CONCLUSION

The findings are indicative that on average people form quite accurate expectations, and support collecting subjective expectations about health services in household surveys for use in applied research.

摘要

背景

本研究旨在评估人们对使用各种卫生服务的主观概率预期的信息含量。

方法

本研究使用了 1528 名澳大利亚成年人（25-64 岁）的样本，我将人们对访问各种卫生服务提供者（医院、牙医、验光师、物理治疗师和相关护理提供者、顺势疗法医生和按摩治疗师）的概率与过去的使用情况和样本外预测的使用情况进行了比较。我还估计了过去的使用情况和主观预期是否由相同的协变量来预测。最后，我估计了在考虑过去的使用情况和其他控制因素的情况下，主观预期对购买私人医疗保险的选择是否具有预测能力。