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结婚时年龄较小会影响离婚率吗?来自约翰逊行政命令11241的证据。

Does younger age at marriage affect divorce? Evidence from Johnson's Executive Order 11241.

作者信息

Bailey Martha J, Beam Emily A, Wentz Anna

机构信息

Department of Economics, University of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California.

Department of Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont.

出版信息

Econ Inq. 2021 Jul;59(3):1328-1345. doi: 10.1111/ecin.12965. Epub 2021 Feb 24.

Abstract

Before President Johnson's Executive Order 11241 in August 1965, married men received lower draft priority for military service. As the Vietnam War escalated in the summer of 1965, anecdotal evidence suggests draft-eligible men sought marriage to lower their likelihood of serving. This paper quantifies the effects of these Vietnam-era policies on marriage and finds that they significantly reduced the age at first marriage and altered the choice of spouse. However, younger marriages induced by the war were likely to result in divorce 15 years later. Evidence also suggests that these younger marriages had little effect on long-term outcomes.

摘要

在1965年8月约翰逊总统发布第11241号行政命令之前,已婚男子在征兵服役方面的优先等级较低。随着1965年夏天越南战争的升级,有传闻称符合征兵条件的男子寻求结婚以降低服役的可能性。本文对这些越南战争时期的政策对婚姻的影响进行了量化,发现它们显著降低了初婚年龄并改变了配偶选择。然而,战争导致的早婚在15年后很可能以离婚告终。有证据还表明,这些早婚对长期结果影响甚微。

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