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碳排放对尼泊尔的人口增长、能源利用和经济发展有影响吗?来自长期和短期分析的证据。

Do carbon emissions impact Nepal's population growth, energy utilization, and economic progress? Evidence from long- and short-run analyses.

机构信息

College of Economics and Management, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei, China.

College of Economics and Management, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, 450002, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Oct;28(39):55465-55475. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14546-6. Epub 2021 Jun 17.

Abstract

Greenhouse gases are the major issues globally leading to climate change and increased pollution of the atmosphere. CO emissions have divergent effect to the environment that also causes the economic performance of any country. The main motive of this analysis was to expose the influence of CO emission on population growth, fossil fuel energy consumption, economic progress, and energy usage in Nepal by using time series data ranging from 1971 to 2019, and data stationarity was checked with the help of unit root tests. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method with cointegration test was employed to adjudicate the variable dynamics with short- and long-run evidence. Furthermore, variable causality was tested through the Granger causality test. Study findings show that during long-run analysis that fossil fuel energy consumption and energy utilization has constructive affinity with carbon dioxide emission that exposed the p-values (0.0000) and (0.1065) correspondingly, while population growth and economic progress uncovered an inimical relation to CO emission. Similarly, the outcomes via short-run analysis also show that fossil fuel energy consumption and energy utilization have productive relation with CO emission which shows the p-values (0.0000) and (0.1317), while population growth and economic progress demonstrate an adverse influence to CO emission. The causality test results also validate a unidirectional linkage among variables. In attempt to participate in the global fight to clean up the atmosphere, the Nepali government and officials must take new measures to reduce CO emissions.

摘要

温室气体是导致气候变化和大气污染加剧的全球性主要问题。CO 排放对环境有不同的影响,也会影响到任何国家的经济表现。本分析的主要目的是通过使用 1971 年至 2019 年的时间序列数据,揭示 CO 排放对尼泊尔人口增长、化石燃料能源消耗、经济进步和能源使用的影响,数据的平稳性通过单位根检验进行检查。采用自回归分布滞后 (ARDL)方法和协整检验来判断变量的短期和长期动态。此外,通过格兰杰因果检验测试变量的因果关系。研究结果表明,在长期分析中,化石燃料能源消耗和能源利用与二氧化碳排放呈正相关,这表明 p 值分别为(0.0000)和(0.1065),而人口增长和经济进步与 CO 排放呈负相关。同样,通过短期分析得出的结果也表明,化石燃料能源消耗和能源利用与 CO 排放呈正相关,这表明 p 值分别为(0.0000)和(0.1317),而人口增长和经济进步对 CO 排放有不利影响。因果关系检验结果也验证了变量之间存在单向联系。为了参与全球清洁大气的斗争,尼泊尔政府和官员必须采取新措施来减少 CO 排放。

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