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瑞士 2020 年超额死亡率的初步分析。

A first analysis of excess mortality in Switzerland in 2020.

机构信息

Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2021 Jun 17;16(6):e0253505. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253505. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To quantify excess all-cause mortality in Switzerland in 2020, a key indicator for assessing direct and indirect consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Using official data on deaths in Switzerland, all-cause mortality in 2020 was compared with that of previous years using directly standardized mortality rates, age- and sex-specific mortality rates, and life expectancy.

RESULTS

The standardized mortality rate was 8.8% higher in 2020 than in 2019, returning to the level observed 5-6 years before, around the year 2015. This increase was greater for men (10.6%) than for women (7.2%) and was statistically significant only for men over 70 years of age, and for women over 75 years of age. The decrease in life expectancy in 2020 compared to 2019 was 0.7%, with a loss of 9.7 months for men and 5.3 months for women.

CONCLUSIONS

There was an excess mortality in Switzerland in 2020, linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as this excess only concerned the elderly, the resulting loss of life expectancy was restricted to a few months, bringing the mortality level back to 2015.

摘要

目的

量化 2020 年瑞士全因超额死亡率,这是评估 COVID-19 大流行直接和间接后果的关键指标。

方法

使用瑞士官方死亡数据,通过直接标准化死亡率、年龄和性别特异性死亡率以及预期寿命,比较 2020 年与往年的全因死亡率。

结果

2020 年的标准化死亡率比 2019 年高出 8.8%,回到了 2015 年左右 5-6 年前的水平。男性(10.6%)的增幅高于女性(7.2%),且仅在 70 岁以上男性和 75 岁以上女性中具有统计学意义。与 2019 年相比,2020 年预期寿命下降了 0.7%,男性减少了 9.7 个月,女性减少了 5.3 个月。

结论

2020 年瑞士存在与 COVID-19 大流行相关的超额死亡率。然而,由于这种超额死亡率仅涉及老年人,因此导致的预期寿命损失仅限于几个月,使死亡率水平回到 2015 年的水平。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5ad/8211252/4d65217acda3/pone.0253505.g001.jpg

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