Liu Bette, Jayasundara Duleepa, Pye Victoria, Dobbins Timothy, Dore Gregory J, Matthews Gail, Kaldor John, Spokes Paula
School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney.
Public Health Response Branch, NSW Ministry of Health.
Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2021 Jul;12:100193. doi: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100193. Epub 2021 Jun 25.
COVID-19 results in persisting symptoms but there is little systematically collected data estimating recovery time following infection.
We followed 94% of all COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the Australian state of New South Wales between January and May 2020 using 3-4 weekly telephone interviews and linkage to hospitalisation and death data to determine if they had recovered from COVID-19 based on symptom resolution. Proportional hazards models with competing risks were used to estimate time to recovery adjusted for age and gender.
In analyses 2904 cases were followed for recovery (median follow-up time 16 days, range 1-122, IQR 11-24).There were 2572 (88.6%) who reported resolution of symptoms (262/2572 were also hospitalised), 224 (7.8%) had not recovered at last contact (28/224 were also hospitalised), 51 (1.8%) died of COVID-19, and 57 (2.0%) were hospitalised without a documented recovery date. Of those followed, 20% recovered by 10 days, 60% at 20, 80% at 30, 91% at 60, 93% at 90 and 96% at 120 days. Compared to those aged 30-49 years, those 0-29 years were more likely to recover (aHR 1.22, 95%CI 1.10-1.34) while those aged 50-69 and 70+ years were less likely to recover (aHR respectively 0.74, 95%CI 0.67-0.81 and 0.63, 95%CI 0.56-0.71). Men were faster to recover than women (aHR 1.20, 95%CI 1.11-1.29) and those with pre-existing co-morbidities took longer to recover than those without (aHR 0.90, 95%CI 0.83-0.98).
In a setting where most cases of COVID-19 were ascertained and followed, 80% of those with COVID-19 recover within a month, but about 5% will continue to experience symptoms 3 months later.
NSW Health Emergency Response Priority Research Projects.
新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）会导致持续症状，但几乎没有系统收集的数据来估计感染后的恢复时间。
我们对2020年1月至5月在澳大利亚新南威尔士州确诊的所有COVID-19病例中的94%进行了跟踪，通过每3 - 4周进行一次电话访谈，并与住院和死亡数据相联系，根据症状缓解情况来确定他们是否已从COVID-19中康复。使用带有竞争风险的比例风险模型来估计经年龄和性别调整后的恢复时间。
在分析中，对2904例病例进行了恢复情况跟踪（中位随访时间16天，范围1 - 122天，四分位间距11 - 24天）。有2572例（88.6%）报告症状已缓解（其中262/2572例也曾住院），224例（7.8%）在最后一次联系时仍未康复（其中28/224例也曾住院），51例（1.8%）死于COVID-19，57例（2.0%）住院但未记录康复日期。在接受跟踪的患者中，20%在10天内康复，60%在20天内康复，80%在30天内康复，91%在60天内康复，93%在90天内康复，96%在120天内康复。与30 - 49岁的人群相比，0 - 29岁的人群更有可能康复（调整后风险比1.22，95%置信区间1.10 - 1.34），而50 - 69岁和70岁及以上的人群康复的可能性较小（调整后风险比分别为0.74，95%置信区间0.67 - 0.81和0.63，95%置信区间0.56 - 0.71）。男性比女性康复得更快（调整后风险比1.20，95%置信区间1.11 - 1.29），有基础合并症的患者比没有基础合并症的患者康复所需时间更长（调整后风险比0.90，95%置信区间0.83 - 0.98）。
在一个大多数COVID-19病例得到确诊和跟踪的环境中，80%的COVID-19患者在一个月内康复，但约5%的患者在3个月后仍会持续出现症状。
新南威尔士州卫生应急优先研究项目。
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