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十年面板数据证实了代际差距,但不同年龄段的人对气候的看法增加速度相似。

Ten-year panel data confirm generation gap but climate beliefs increase at similar rates across ages.

机构信息

School of Psychology, University of Waikato, Waikato, New Zealand.

School of Psychology, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2021 Jul 6;12(1):4038. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-24245-y.

Abstract

Accumulating evidence indicates that climate change awareness and concern has increased globally, but commentators suggest a climate change generation gap whereby younger people care more about climate change than older people. Here we use a decade of panel data from 56,513 New Zealanders to test whether belief that "Climate change is real" and "Climate change is caused by humans" increased over the 2009-2018 period; and whether changes are uniform across 12 five-year birth cohorts spanning those born from 1936 to 1995. Results confirm a generation gap in mean (intercept) climate change beliefs but not in over-time increase (slope). The generation gap occurs because older cohorts started from a lower initial belief level (circa 2009), but all age cohorts increased their belief level at a similar rate over the last decade; and these results were not qualified by respondents' gender. The findings offer hope for collective action that bridges efforts across generations.

摘要

越来越多的证据表明,全球范围内人们对气候变化的认识和关注有所增加,但有评论认为存在“气候变化代沟”,即年轻人比老年人更关心气候变化。在这里,我们利用来自 56513 名新西兰人的十年面板数据,检验人们对“气候变化是真实的”和“气候变化是由人类引起的”的信念是否在 2009 年至 2018 年间有所增加;以及这些变化是否在跨越 1936 年至 1995 年出生的 12 个五年出生队列中保持一致。结果证实了在气候变化信念的平均(截距)方面存在代沟,但在随时间推移的增加(斜率)方面则不存在。这种代沟的出现是因为较年长的队列从较低的初始信念水平开始(大约在 2009 年),但在过去十年中,所有年龄队列都以相似的速度提高了他们的信念水平;而且这些结果不受受访者性别影响。这些发现为跨越代际的集体行动提供了希望。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1c9a/8260718/02803d70e7f4/41467_2021_24245_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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