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牲畜流动告知了东非传统生产系统中疾病传播的风险。

Livestock movement informs the risk of disease spread in traditional production systems in East Africa.

机构信息

Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.

School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2021 Aug 12;11(1):16375. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-95706-z.

Abstract

In Africa, livestock are important to local and national economies, but their productivity is constrained by infectious diseases. Comprehensive information on livestock movements and contacts is required to devise appropriate disease control strategies; yet, understanding contact risk in systems where herds mix extensively, and where different pathogens can be transmitted at different spatial and temporal scales, remains a major challenge. We deployed Global Positioning System collars on cattle in 52 herds in a traditional agropastoral system in western Serengeti, Tanzania, to understand fine-scale movements and between-herd contacts, and to identify locations of greatest interaction between herds. We examined contact across spatiotemporal scales relevant to different disease transmission scenarios. Daily cattle movements increased with herd size and rainfall. Generally, contact between herds was greatest away from households, during periods with low rainfall and in locations close to dipping points. We demonstrate how movements and contacts affect the risk of disease spread. For example, transmission risk is relatively sensitive to the survival time of different pathogens in the environment, and less sensitive to transmission distance, at least over the range of the spatiotemporal definitions of contacts that we explored. We identify times and locations of greatest disease transmission potential and that could be targeted through tailored control strategies.

摘要

在非洲,牲畜对地方和国家经济至关重要,但它们的生产力受到传染病的限制。需要全面了解牲畜的流动和接触情况,以便制定适当的疾病控制策略;然而,在牲畜广泛混合的系统中,以及不同的病原体可以在不同的空间和时间尺度上传播的情况下,了解接触风险仍然是一个主要挑战。我们在坦桑尼亚西部塞伦盖蒂的一个传统农牧系统中的 52 个牧群中部署了全球定位系统项圈,以了解精细的运动和牧群之间的接触情况,并确定牧群之间相互作用最大的地点。我们研究了与不同疾病传播情况相关的时空尺度上的接触情况。牛的日常活动随着牧群规模和降雨量的增加而增加。通常情况下,牧群之间的接触在远离家庭的地方、降雨量较低的时期以及靠近蘸水点的地方最为频繁。我们展示了运动和接触如何影响疾病传播的风险。例如,在我们探索的接触时空定义范围内,传播风险对不同病原体在环境中的存活时间相对敏感,而对传播距离的敏感度较低。我们确定了疾病传播的最大潜在时间和地点,这些时间和地点可以通过有针对性的控制策略来加以解决。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cb63/8361167/369f8878219e/41598_2021_95706_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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