Fenner Richard, Cernev Thomas
Centre for Sustainable Development, Cambridge University Engineering Department, UK.
Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
Futures. 2021 Apr;128:102726. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2021.102726. Epub 2021 Mar 6.
Global responses to COVID-19 will impact on delivery of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, creating large uncertainties just at the time efforts need to be accelerated. This paper explores how COVID-19 could impact the success of meeting the targets with priority given to the four 'foundational' goals: SDG 1 No Poverty; SDG3 Good Health; SDG 14 Life Below Water and SDG 15 Life on Land as these are critical in maintaining a healthy human and environmental resource base on which progress towards all goals can be built. A scenario analysis examines futures across a spectrum in which i) social and health imperatives (lives) dominate, to ii) where economic imperatives (livelihoods) take precedence. Similarly levels of international co-operation are considered ranging from international recognition of urgent global agendas to fragmentation due to the isolation of individual states around national priorities. These give rise to 4 scenarios: a) Global Well-being Prioritized b) World Trade Recovers c) Poverty Gaps Widen c) Earth Systems in Danger and the likelihood of achieving the foundational SDGs in each is discussed. The paper concludes opportunities exist to refocus efforts on delivery of the SDGs but may be hampered by the competing interests of a new geopolitics.
全球对新冠疫情的应对将影响到2030年17项可持续发展目标的实现，而此时恰恰需要加快努力，这就带来了很大的不确定性。本文探讨了新冠疫情如何可能影响实现各项目标的成功与否，重点关注四个“基础”目标：可持续发展目标1：消除贫困；可持续发展目标3：良好健康与福祉；可持续发展目标14：水下生物；可持续发展目标15：陆地生物，因为这些目标对于维持健康的人类和环境资源基础至关重要，而所有目标的进展都可以建立在此基础之上。一项情景分析考察了一系列未来情景，其中i）社会和健康需求（生命）占主导，到ii）经济需求（生计）优先的情况。同样，国际合作水平也被考虑在内，范围从对紧迫全球议程的国际认可到因各国围绕国家优先事项孤立而导致的碎片化。这些情况产生了4种情景：a）全球福祉优先；b）世界贸易复苏；c）贫困差距扩大；d）地球系统处于危险之中，并讨论了在每种情景下实现基础可持续发展目标的可能性。本文的结论是，存在重新将努力重点放在实现可持续发展目标上的机会，但可能会受到新地缘政治中相互竞争利益的阻碍。
