Department of Public Health Sciences, Penn State College of Medicine and Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, 90 Hope Drive, Suite 2200, Hershey, PA, 17033, USA.
Center for Neural Engineering, Department of Engineering, Science and Mechanics, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA.
Sci Rep. 2021 Oct 21;11(1):20654. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-98813-z.
During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, gun violence (GV) in the United States (U.S.) was postulated to increase strain on already taxed healthcare resources, such as blood products, intensive care beds, personal protective equipment, and even hospital staff. This report aims to estimate the relative risk of GV in the U.S. during the pandemic compared to before the pandemic. Daily police reports corresponding to gun-related injuries and deaths in the 50 states and the District of Columbia from February 1st, 2019, to March 31st, 2021 were obtained from the GV Archive. Generalized linear mixed-effects models in the form of Poisson regression analysis were utilized to estimate the state-specific rates of GV. Nationally, GV rates were 30% higher between March 01, 2020, and March 31, 2021 (during the pandemic), compared to the same period in 2019 (before the pandemic) [intensity ratio (IR) = 1.30; 95% CI 1.29, 1.32; p < 0.0001]. The risk of GV was significantly higher in 28 states and significantly lower in only one state. National and state-specific rates of GV were higher during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the same timeframe 1 year prior. State-specific steps to mitigate violence, or at a minimum adequately prepare for its toll during the COVID-19 pandemic, should be taken.
在 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行期间,有人推测美国(U.S.)的枪支暴力(GV)会增加已经紧张的医疗资源的负担,例如血液制品、重症监护床位、个人防护设备,甚至医院工作人员。本报告旨在估计与大流行前相比,美国在大流行期间发生 GV 的相对风险。从 2019 年 2 月 1 日至 2021 年 3 月 31 日,从 GV 档案中获取了美国 50 个州和哥伦比亚特区与枪支相关的伤害和死亡的每日警方报告。利用广义线性混合效应模型(以泊松回归分析的形式)来估计各州的 GV 特定发生率。全国范围内,2020 年 3 月 1 日至 2021 年 3 月 31 日(大流行期间)的 GV 发生率比 2019 年同期(大流行前)高出 30%[强度比(IR)=1.30;95%置信区间 1.29,1.32;p<0.0001]。在 28 个州,GV 的风险明显更高,而在一个州,GV 的风险明显更低。与前一年同期相比,COVID-19 大流行期间的全国和各州特定的 GV 发生率更高。应采取减轻暴力的州内特定措施,或至少在 COVID-19 大流行期间为其影响做好充分准备。