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网络渗流揭示了流动性网络对 COVID-19 反应的自适应桥梁。

Network percolation reveals adaptive bridges of the mobility network response to COVID-19.

机构信息

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States of America.

Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering, University of Florida, Gainsville, FL, United States of America.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2021 Nov 9;16(11):e0258868. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258868. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Human mobility is crucial to understand the transmission pattern of COVID-19 on spatially embedded geographic networks. This pattern seems unpredictable, and the propagation appears unstoppable, resulting in over 350,000 death tolls in the U.S. by the end of 2020. Here, we create the spatiotemporal inter-county mobility network using 10 TB (Terabytes) trajectory data of 30 million smart devices in the U.S. in the first six months of 2020. We investigate the bond percolation process by removing the weakly connected edges. As we increase the threshold, the mobility network nodes become less interconnected and thus experience surprisingly abrupt phase transitions. Despite the complex behaviors of the mobility network, we devised a novel approach to identify a small, manageable set of recurrent critical bridges, connecting the giant component and the second-largest component. These adaptive links, located across the United States, played a key role as valves connecting components in divisions and regions during the pandemic. Beyond, our numerical results unveil that network characteristics determine the critical thresholds and the bridge locations. The findings provide new insights into managing and controlling the connectivity of mobility networks during unprecedented disruptions. The work can also potentially offer practical future infectious diseases both globally and locally.

摘要

人口流动对于理解 COVID-19 在空间嵌入地理网络上的传播模式至关重要。这种模式似乎是不可预测的,传播似乎是无法阻挡的,导致到 2020 年底美国的死亡人数超过 35 万。在这里,我们使用美国 2020 年前六个月 3000 万台智能设备的 10TB(太字节)轨迹数据创建了时空县际流动网络。我们通过删除弱连接边来研究键合渗流过程。随着阈值的增加,移动网络节点的连接变得越来越少,因此会经历惊人的突然相变。尽管移动网络的行为非常复杂,但我们设计了一种新方法来识别一小部分可管理的反复出现的关键桥梁,这些桥梁连接着巨量组件和第二大组件。这些自适应链路位于美国各地,在大流行期间作为连接分区和地区组件的关键阀门发挥了重要作用。此外,我们的数值结果揭示了网络特征决定了关键阈值和桥梁位置。这些发现为在前所未有的干扰期间管理和控制移动性网络的连通性提供了新的见解。这项工作还可能为未来全球和本地的传染病提供实际的帮助。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf75/8577732/78ad2fbb29f8/pone.0258868.g001.jpg

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