Trajectory and course of problematic alcohol use after the Great East Japan Earthquake: Eight-year follow-up of the Higashi-Matsushima cohort study.

BACKGROUND

Problematic alcohol use (PAU) after natural disasters is an unignorable public health issue. However, the long-term trajectory and course of PAU after an earthquake disaster remain unknown.

METHODS

The Higashi-Matsushima cohort study was conducted between 2012 (time 1) and 2019 (time 8) in areas affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. In the annual health checks, participants responded to self-report questionnaires on PAU, traumatic experiences (e.g., house damage), resources (e.g., social support), and other covariates (e.g., gender, psychological distress). The trajectory and course of PAU were estimated by latent growth model and latent class analyses. Risk factors for the long-term course of PAU were calculated by multinomial logistic regression analysis with multiple imputation. The analytical sample comprised 8929 residents who participated in at least one survey across the eight time points.

RESULTS

The trajectory of PAU showed a sustained trend (slope <0.001). Three potential courses of PAU (No PAU course: 84.3%, Subthreshold PAU course: 12.4%, and Persistent PAU course: 3.4%) were estimated. The long-term course of PAU, especially the persistent PAU course, was predicted by house damage (OR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.92), less social support (OR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.96), gender (male) (OR = 16.86, 95% CI 9.42 to 30.20), and psychological distress (OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.20).

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term support is needed after an earthquake disaster, especially for residents who in early phases of the disaster suffer from PAU, males, and those in vulnerable situations resulting from conditions such as severe house damage, low social support, or high psychological distress.