Department of Social Policy and Intervention, Barnett House, 32-37 Wellington Square, Oxford, OX1 2ER, UK.
YouGov, 50 Featherstone Street, London, EC1Y 8RT, UK.
Sci Rep. 2022 Mar 9;12(1):3821. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-07857-2.
The effectiveness of containment measures has been shown to depend on both epidemiological and sociological mechanisms, most notably compliance with national lockdown rules. Yet, there has been growing discontent with social distancing rules during national lockdowns across several countries, particularly among certain demographic and socio-economic groups. Using a highly granular dataset on compliance of over 105,000 individuals between March and May 2020 in the United Kingdom (UK), we find that compliance with lockdown policies was initially high in the overall population during the earlier phase of the pandemic, but that compliance fell substantially over time, especially among specific segments of society. Warmer temperatures increased the non-compliance of individuals who are male, divorced, part-time employed, and/or parent of more than two children. Thus, while epidemiologically the virus spread was naturally more limited during the warmer period of 2020, sociologically the higher temperature led to lower individual-level compliance with public health measures. As long as new strains emerge, governments may therefore be required to complement vaccination campaigns with targeted and time limited restrictions. Since non-complying individuals at the beginning of the pandemic share certain characteristics with vaccination sceptics, understanding their compliance behaviour will remain essential for future policymaking.
遏制措施的有效性已被证明取决于流行病学和社会学机制，尤其是对国家封锁规则的遵守。然而，在多个国家的全国封锁期间，人们对社交距离规则的不满情绪日益加剧，尤其是在某些人口和社会经济群体中。利用英国（UK）2020 年 3 月至 5 月期间超过 105000 人遵守情况的高度详细数据集，我们发现，在大流行的早期阶段，总体人群对封锁政策的遵守率最初很高，但随着时间的推移，遵守率大幅下降，尤其是在社会的特定群体中。较高的温度增加了男性、离婚、兼职、有两个以上孩子的父母等特定群体的不遵守率。因此，虽然从流行病学角度来看，2020 年较温暖的时期病毒传播自然受到限制，但从社会学角度来看，较高的温度导致个人对公共卫生措施的遵守程度降低。只要新的病毒株出现，政府可能需要将接种疫苗运动与有针对性和限时限制相结合。由于大流行初期不遵守规定的人与疫苗怀疑论者具有某些共同特征，因此了解他们的遵守行为对于未来的决策制定仍然至关重要。
