State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of the Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China.
Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Mar 5;19(5):3074. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19053074.
The first wave of COVID-19 in China began in December 2019. The outbreak was quickly and effectively controlled through strict infection prevention and control with multipronged measures. By the end of March 2020, the outbreak had basically ended. Therefore, there are relatively complete and effective infection prevention and control (IPC) processes in China to curb virus transmission. Furthermore, there were two large-scale updates for the daily reports by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China in the early stage of the pandemic. We retrospectively studied the transmission characteristics and IPC of COVID-19 in China. Additionally, we analyzed and modeled the data in the two revisions. We found that most cases were limited to Hubei Province, especially in Wuhan, and the mortality rate was lower in non-Wuhan areas. We studied the two revisions and utilized the proposed transmission model to revise the daily confirmed cases at the beginning of the pandemic in Wuhan. Moreover, we estimated the cases and deaths for the same stage and analyzed the effect of IPC in China. The results show that strong and effective IPC with strict implementation was able to effectively and quickly control the pandemic.
中国的 COVID-19 疫情于 2019 年 12 月开始出现。通过采取多管齐下的措施,迅速有效地控制了疫情。到 2020 年 3 月底,疫情基本结束。因此,中国有相对完整和有效的感染预防和控制(IPC)流程来遏制病毒传播。此外,在疫情早期,中国国家卫生健康委员会每天都会有两次大的报告更新。我们回顾性地研究了 COVID-19 在我国的传播特征和 IPC。此外,我们还对这两个版本的数据进行了分析和建模。我们发现,大多数病例仅限于湖北省,尤其是武汉市,非武汉市的死亡率较低。我们研究了这两个版本,并利用提出的传播模型对武汉疫情初期的每日确诊病例进行了修正。此外,我们还估算了同一阶段的病例数和死亡数,并分析了中国 IPC 的效果。结果表明,严格执行的有力和有效的 IPC 能够有效迅速地控制疫情。