National School of Public Health, Institute of Health Carlos III, Sinesio Delgado, 8, 28029, Madrid, Spain.
Circiter, S.L, Madrid, Spain.
Int J Behav Nutr Phys Act. 2022 Mar 12;19(1):24. doi: 10.1186/s12966-022-01262-8.
The World Health Organisation urges countries to levy specific excise taxes on SSBs. Currently, more than 50 countries have introduced some type of tax on SSBs. In March 2017, the Autonomous Region of Catalonia approved the introduction of a tiered excise tax on SSBs for public health reasons. To evaluate the effect of the Catalonian excise tax on the price and purchase of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and their possible substitutes, i.e., non-sugar-sweetened beverages (NSSBs) and bottled water, three and half years after its introduction, and 1 year after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
We analysed purchase data on soft drinks, fruit drinks and water, sourced from the Ministry of Agriculture food-consumption panel, in a random sample of 12,500 households across Spain. We applied the synthetic control method to infer the causal impact of the intervention, based on a Bayesian structural time-series model which predicts the counterfactual response that would have occurred in Catalonia, had no intervention taken place.
As compared to the predicted (counterfactual) response, per capita purchases of SSBs fell by 0.17 l three and a half years after implementing the SSB tax in Catalonia, a 16.7% decline (95% CI: - 23.18, - 8.74). The mean SSB price rose by 0.11 €/L, an 11% increase (95% CI: 9.0, 14.1). Although there were no changes in mean NSSB prices, NSSB consumption rose by 0.19 l per capita, a 21.7% increase (95% CI: 18.25, 25.54). There were no variations in the price or consumption of bottled water. The effects were progressively greater over time, with SSB purchases decreasing by 10.4% at 1 year, 12.3% at 2 years, 15.3% at 3 years, and 16.7% at three and a half years of the tax's introduction.
The Catalonian SSB excise tax had a sustained and progressive impact over time, with a fall in consumption of as much as 16.7% three and half years after its introduction. The observed NSSB substitution effect should be borne in mind when considering the application of this type of tax to the rest of Spain.
世界卫生组织敦促各国对含糖饮料（SSB）征收特定的消费税。目前，已有 50 多个国家对 SSB 征收某种形式的税。2017 年 3 月，加泰罗尼亚自治区出于公共卫生考虑，批准对 SSB 征收累进消费税。为了评估加泰罗尼亚消费税对 SSB 价格和购买的影响，以及 SSB 的可能替代品（即无糖饮料（NSSB）和瓶装水）的影响，在该税实施三年半后和 COVID-19 大流行爆发一年后进行了调查。
我们分析了西班牙农业部食品消费面板中，12500 户家庭的软饮料、果汁饮料和水的购买数据。我们应用合成控制法，根据贝叶斯结构时间序列模型，推断干预的因果影响，该模型预测了如果没有干预，加泰罗尼亚将发生的反事实反应。
与预测（反事实）反应相比，在加泰罗尼亚实施 SSB 税三年半后，SSB 的人均购买量下降了 0.17 升，下降了 16.7%（95%CI：-23.18，-8.74）。SSB 价格平均上涨 0.11 欧元/升，涨幅为 11%（95%CI：9.0，14.1）。尽管 NSSB 价格没有变化，但 NSSB 的消费量人均增加了 0.19 升，增长了 21.7%（95%CI：18.25，25.54）。瓶装水的价格和消费量没有变化。随着时间的推移，效果逐渐增大，在税收实施 1 年后 SSB 的购买量下降了 10.4%，2 年后下降了 12.3%，3 年后下降了 15.3%，3 年半后下降了 16.7%。
加泰罗尼亚的 SSB 消费税具有持续和渐进的影响，在实施三年半后，消费量下降了 16.7%。在考虑将这种类型的税应用于西班牙其他地区时，应考虑到观察到的 NSSB 替代效应。
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