2021年，新冠病毒德尔塔变异株引发的疫情浪潮致使保加利亚医疗系统的医院容量过早不堪重负。
COVID-19 Delta Wave Caused Early Overburden of Hospital Capacity in the Bulgarian Healthcare System in 2021.
作者信息
Tomov Latchezar P, Batselova Hristiana M, Velikova Tsvetelina V
机构信息
Department of Informatics, New Bulgarian University, 1618 Sofia, Bulgaria.
Department of Epidemiology and Hygiene, University Hospital "Saint George", Medical University, 6000 Plovdiv, Bulgaria.
出版信息
Healthcare (Basel). 2022 Mar 22;10(4):600. doi: 10.3390/healthcare10040600.
We develop and apply our methodology to estimate the overburdening of hospitals in Bulgaria during the upcoming delta surge. We base our estimations on an exponential risk model from the UK. Still, the methodology is generally applicable to all risk models, depending on age. Our hypothesis is that during the delta wave in Bulgaria, the system experienced a burden from late August due to decreased capacity. This will explain most of the excess mortality during the wave. We estimate the number of people from the active cases in need of hospitalization and intensive care.
我们开发并应用我们的方法来估计保加利亚在即将到来的德尔塔毒株激增期间医院的负担过重情况。我们的估计基于英国的一个指数风险模型。不过，该方法一般适用于所有风险模型，具体取决于年龄。我们的假设是，在保加利亚的德尔塔毒株浪潮期间，由于医疗能力下降，系统从8月下旬开始承受负担。这将解释该浪潮期间大部分的超额死亡率。我们估计了需要住院和重症监护的活跃病例中的人数。
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