Berger Ursula, Fritz Cornelius, Kauermann Göran
IBE - Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munchen, Germany.
Statistik, LMU München Fakultät für Mathematik Informatik und Statistik, Munchen, Germany.
Gesundheitswesen. 2022 Jun;84(6):495-502. doi: 10.1055/a-1813-9778. Epub 2022 Jun 8.
Aim of the study The aim of this was to study investigate the effectiveness of mandatory Covid-19 tests for in-classroom teaching in reopened schools as a containment measure in the pandemic. In Bavaria, mandatory testing at schools was implemented directly after the Easter vacations in 2021. For the first week after the vacations, this resulted in a natural experiment that allowed us to quantify the impact of the new testing strategy on reported Covid-19 cases.Methods We compared changes in the reported 7-day incidence of new infections between districts with in-classroom teaching at school and districts with closed schools. During the calendar week 15, districts with reported incidences below 100 were allowed to reopen schools and have in-classroom teaching if mandatory COVID-19 testing was performed at school with rapid antigen tests. We do not have data on the rapid test results; however, positive test results in the rapid antigen test were verified by a PCR test, and cases of positive PCR test results were reported at the district level by age groups. In the calendar weeks 13 and 14, all schools in Bavaria were closed due to Easter vacations. Taking into account a latency period of about 3-4 days and a reporting period of 1-2 days, this means that any additional increase in reported incidences for districts with in-class teaching and mandatory testing in the week after the vacation cannot be attributed to transmissions at schools, but reflects the reduction of underreporting due to the newly implemented testing strategy.Results Reported incidence increased by a factor of 6.6 for 5-11 year old and by 1.7 for 12-20 year old pupils in districts with in-classroom teaching and mandatory testing at schools. This increase was accompanied by a reduction in underreporting and was significant compared to districts with school closure. Given the situation of a natural experiment, this increase in the reported incidence among school children can be attributed to the testing strategy. For the same time period, no differences in reported incidences were found for the other age groups.Conclusion In-class teaching with mandatory testing in reopened schools changes the role of schools in the pandemic. Our analyses show that reopening schools with a mandatory testing approach is beneficial from an epidemiologic perspective as it can strongly reduce the dark figure of COVID-19 cases among children.
研究目的 本研究旨在调查在重新开放的学校中,将新冠病毒强制检测作为疫情防控措施用于课堂教学的有效性。在巴伐利亚州,2021年复活节假期后立即实施了学校强制检测。在假期后的第一周,这形成了一项自然实验,使我们能够量化新检测策略对报告的新冠病毒病例的影响。
方法 我们比较了学校开展课堂教学的地区和学校关闭的地区之间报告的新感染7天发病率的变化。在第15个日历周,报告发病率低于100的地区如果在学校使用快速抗原检测进行新冠病毒强制检测,就可以重新开放学校并开展课堂教学。我们没有快速检测结果的数据;然而,快速抗原检测中的阳性检测结果通过聚合酶链反应(PCR)检测进行了验证,PCR检测阳性结果的病例按年龄组在地区层面进行了报告。在第13和14个日历周,巴伐利亚州的所有学校因复活节假期而关闭。考虑到约3 - 4天的潜伏期和1 - 2天的报告期,这意味着假期后开展课堂教学并进行强制检测的地区报告发病率的任何额外增加不能归因于学校内的传播,而是反映了由于新实施的检测策略导致的漏报减少。
结果 在学校开展课堂教学并进行强制检测的地区,5 - 11岁学生的报告发病率增加了6.6倍,12 - 20岁学生的报告发病率增加了1.7倍。这种增加伴随着漏报的减少,与学校关闭的地区相比具有显著性。鉴于自然实验的情况,学龄儿童报告发病率的这种增加可归因于检测策略。在同一时期,其他年龄组的报告发病率没有发现差异。
结论 在重新开放的学校中进行强制检测的课堂教学改变了学校在疫情中的作用。我们的分析表明,采用强制检测方法重新开放学校从流行病学角度来看是有益的,因为它可以大幅减少儿童中新冠病毒病例的隐性数字。